Heterojunction has advantages in process performance, reducing costs throughout the process to help production. According to CPIA data, the 210 large heterojunction has an advantage over TopCon in terms of battery efficiency and module power, and heterojunction batteries can be layered with perovskite to help smooth the transition to third-generation battery technology. By the end of 2023, 100um silicon wafers are ready for mass production. As special silicon rods for heterojunction and thinner silicon wafers are introduced one after another, the cost of heterocrystalline silicon is expected to continue to decline. In terms of non-silicon costs, we expect 0BB+ silver coated copper to be fully introduced in 2024 to achieve heterojunction metallization costs equal to or even lower than TopCon. At the same time, along with the cost reduction of low indium and no indianation target materials, and the reduction of heterojunction production line equipment to less than 300 million yuan/GW, the heterojunction cost ratio will be further highlighted.
210 The large market space is clear, and the company is actively promoting production capacity construction. According to Zhonghuan data, 210 size Perc batteries account for more than 25% of Perc. Based on a total Perc size of 200 GW, there is about 50 GW of replacement space for 210 size Perc. Currently, 210 size TopCon technology is more difficult and the process is more difficult, and 210 large heterojunction batteries have good performance in terms of yield and efficiency, so heterojunction has an advantage over TopCon in the application fields of large-scale power plants and commercial roofs. The company seizes 210 heterojunction market space, and the Meishan+Nantong base plans a total production capacity of 20GW. By the end of Q1 2024, a production capacity of 3.8 GW in Meishan had been put into construction. The 3GW construction of the Nantong base has started and is expected to be put into operation in 2024. The company's planning and production capacity are at the forefront of the industry, and I am optimistic about the company's advantages in heterogeneous segmentation tracks.
It binds sufficient orders from leading customers, and multi-party financing promotes subsequent expansion of production. Since the production line was put into operation, the company has signed a number of large orders with leading heterojunction customers to fully guarantee heterogeneous delivery. In November 2023, Meishan Liansheng, a subsidiary of the company, signed a 150MW heterojunction battery sales contract with Shandong Quanwei; in March 2024, Meishan Liansheng signed a 700 MW heterojunction sales contract with Guo Sheng; in April 2024, Meishan Liansheng signed a 1000 MW heterojunction battery sales framework contract with Huasheng. In terms of capital, the company has replenished capital through financing methods such as capital increases and targeted increases, and is full of momentum after expanding production.
Investment advice: Based on the future development logic and performance expectations of the company's various sectors, the company is expected to achieve operating income of 25.06, 48.75 and 6.245 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and achieve net profit of 0.63, 1.43, and 290 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 257.6%, 128.8%, and 102.4%. The corresponding EPS is 0.17, 0.39, and 0.79, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 48X, 21X, and 10.4X, respectively. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; production expansion progress falls short of expectations; risk of technology iteration; risk of capital shortage.