TONGLING NONFERROUS METALS GROUP(000630):1Q24 RESULTS IN LINE;WE EXPECT PHASE II PROJECT OF MIRADOR COPPER MINE TO START OPERATION
TONGLING NONFERROUS METALS GROUP(000630):1Q24 RESULTS IN LINE;WE EXPECT PHASE II PROJECT OF MIRADOR COPPER MINE TO START OPERATION
2023 attributable net profit misses; 1Q24 results largely in line
2023 年應占淨利潤未達預期；24 年第一季度業績基本一致
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group announced its 2023 and 1Q24 results: In 2023, Revenue rose 12.81% YoY to Rmb137.45bn, attributable net profit fell 1.1% YoY to Rmb2.70bn, and recurring attributable net profit fell 25.01% YoY to Rmb1.87bn, missing our expectations. In 4Q23, attributable net profit fell 89% QoQ to Rmb123mn, mainly due to higher- than-expected costs and expenses in 4Q23 and provisioning for asset impairment losses. In 1Q24, attributable net profit grew 7.9 times QoQ and 67.8% YoY to Rmb1.10bn, in line with our expectations.
銅陵有色金屬集團公佈了其2023年和24年第一季度業績：2023年，收入同比增長12.81％，至人民幣1374.5億元，應占淨利潤同比下降1.1％，至27.0億元人民幣，經常性應占淨利潤同比下降25.01％至人民幣18.7億元，未達到我們的預期。在23年第四季度，歸屬淨利潤同比下降89％至人民幣1.23億元，這主要是由於23年第四季度的成本和支出高於預期以及資產減值損失準備金。在24年第一季度，應占淨利潤同比增長7.9倍，同比增長67.8％，達到11.0億元人民幣，符合我們的預期。
Copper smelting and processing fees and copper prices rose YoY in 2023, boosting earnings; copper prices remained high in 1Q24. In 2023, treatment and refining charges (TC and RC) of domestic copper concentrates averaged US$84.97/t, up US$7.22/t YoY, the average price of Shanghai copper rose 1.69% YoY to Rmb68,021/t, and the average domestic sulfuric acid price fell 57.98% YoY to Rmb237.05/t. The average price of Shanghai copper rose 2.2% QoQ to Rmb69,405/t in 1Q24, staying high.
銅冶煉和加工費及銅價在2023年同比上漲，提振了收益；銅價在24年第一季度保持高位。2023年，國內銅精礦的處理和精煉費用（TC和RC）平均爲84.97美元/噸，同比上漲7.22美元/噸；上海銅的平均價格同比上漲1.69％至人民幣68,021元人民幣；國內平均硫酸價格同比下降57.98％至人民幣237.05元/噸。上海銅的平均價格環比上漲2.2％，至69,405元人民幣在24年第一季度，保持高位。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Injection of 70% equity stake in Mirador copper mine completed; we expect Phase II project of the mine to start operation. On August 2, 2023, 70% of CRCC-Tongguan was transferred to the company. According to the announcement, CRCC-Tongguan holds 100% of the Ecuacorriente, which has estimated copper resources of 2.53bnt with an average grade of 0.53%. Phase I of the Mirador mine reached design capacity in 2021, and has contributed considerable incremental copper concentrate to the company after being consolidated into its financial statements. Phase II of the mine is scheduled to start operation in June 2025, when the company expects its annual output to reach about 250,000t. In terms of profitability, CRCC-Tongguan's net profit stood at Rmb1.66bn in 2023.
米拉多銅礦70％的股權注入已經完成；我們預計該礦的第二階段項目將開始運營。2023 年 8 月 2 日，CRCC-Tonguan 70% 的股份轉讓給了該公司。根據公告，CRC-Tonguan持有Ecuacorriente的100％股份，該公司估計銅資源爲25.3億噸，平均品位爲0.53％。Mirador礦的第一階段於2021年達到設計產能，在合併到財務報表後，爲公司貢獻了可觀的增量銅精礦。該礦的第二階段計劃於2025年6月開始運營，該公司預計屆時其年產量將達到約25萬噸。在盈利能力方面，中國鐵建通冠在2023年的淨利潤爲16.6億元人民幣。
2023 copper output beats guidance; self-produced copper concentrate output surged YoY; aims high for 2024. In 2023, the firm's self-produced copper concentrates contain 175,100t of copper1 (350% of its guidance) and 1.76mnt of copper cathode (103% of guidance), both among the highest in China. In 2024, the firm plans to produce its own copper concentrates containing 161,700t of copper and 1.73mnt of copper cathode, maintaining solid guidance.
2023年銅產量超過預期；自產銅精礦產量同比激增；2024年的目標很高。2023年，該公司自產的銅精礦含有175,100噸銅1（佔其預期值的350％）和1.76萬噸陰極銅（指導值的103％），均位居中國前列。2024年，該公司計劃自產銅精礦，其中含有161,700噸銅和1.73萬噸陰極銅，同時保持穩健的指導方針。
As of end-2023, the firm's copper foil production capacity reached 55,000t, and its lithium-ion battery copper foil capacity of 25,000t/yr was under construction with excess funds raised. The firm expects its copper foil production capacity to reach 80,000t in 1H24.
截至2023年底，該公司的銅箔產能達到55,000噸，其每年25,000噸的鋰離子電池銅箔產能正在建設中，並籌集了過剩的資金。該公司預計，其銅箔產能將在24年上半年達到80,000噸。
Announces shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, showing confidence in growth. The firm plans to pay a dividend of Rmb0.08 per share in 2023, and released a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, under which it plans to achieve at least 50% of distributable profit in cash over the next three years when preconditions are met.
宣佈2024-2026年的股東回報計劃，顯示出對增長的信心。該公司計劃在2023年支付每股0.08元人民幣的股息，併發布了2024-2026年的股東回報計劃，根據該計劃，該公司計劃在滿足前提條件的未來三年內實現至少50％的現金可分配利潤。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. We keep our 2024 earnings forecast unchanged and introduce our 2025 net profit forecast Rmb4.81bn. We raise our target price 25% to Rmb5, given the sector-wide re-rating in the nonferrous metal market, the injection of high-quality copper mines, and the firm's large capacity growth potential. The stock is trading at 13.1x 2024e and 10.6x 2025e P/E. Our TP implies 16.1x 2024e and 13.1x 2025e P/E, offering 24% upside.
我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。我們維持2024年的收益預測不變，並公佈了2025年淨利潤預測48.1億元人民幣。鑑於有色金屬市場的全行業評級、高質量銅礦的注入以及該公司的大容量增長潛力，我們將目標價格上調了25％至5元人民幣。該股2024年的市盈率爲13.1倍，2025年市盈率爲10.6倍。我們的目標股價意味着2024年的市盈率爲16.1倍，2025年的市盈率爲13.1倍，上漲幅度爲24％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing capacity ramp-up of projects and/or copper smelting and processing fees.
項目產能增長和/或銅冶煉和加工費用令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。