The company achieved revenue of 1,926 million yuan/yoy +321% in '23, and achieved net profit of 110 million yuan/yoy -130% over the same period in '19, of 1,340 million yuan, net profit of non-return to mother of 88 million yuan, with a slight loss reduction of 1.22 billion yuan compared to '22. Excluding investment gains and impairment losses caused by Huafang, net profit attributable to mother was 829 million yuan, a recovery of 62% over 2019. There is still a gap between 23 years of revenue and performance after excluding flower house factors. The main reason is that most of the company's projects in Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Zhangjiajie were closed before March 4, '23.
By project, in '23, Hangzhou/Sanya/Lijiang/Guilin/Zhangjiajie respectively achieved revenue of 6.55/1.92/3.22/1.90/0.69 billion yuan, with recovery rates of 71%/49%/97%/118%/105%, respectively, net margins of 50%/57%/61%/-/ 15%, respectively, and revenue for a single performance of about 49/27/33/23/150,000 yuan respectively, compared with 2019. As far as new projects are concerned, Xi'an/Shanghai Qianguqing achieved revenue of 0.52/98 million yuan respectively, and revenue of 607/203,800 yuan per game.
The company achieved revenue of 550 million yuan/yoy +139% in 24Q1, 68% recovery compared to 19Q1, net profit of 255 million yuan/yoy +317%, and 68% recovery compared to 19Q1's 370 million yuan. Considering that Huafang was officially announced in May 2019, it still contributed about 380 million yuan in revenue from January to April '19. In the 19Q1 calculation, Huafang contributed 285 million yuan in revenue, and contributed 95 million yuan to the corresponding performance with a net interest rate of 33% in 2018. Excluding profits contributed by flower houses, the company's main business profit basically recovered to the level of 19 in 24Q1.
The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, for a total of 262 million yuan, corresponding to the current dividend rate of 0.96%.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is a leading tourism and performing arts leader in China. Mature projects continue to be iterated, further opening up room for growth after new projects are launched. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 27.30/31.75/3.455 billion yuan, respectively, +42%/+16%/+9%, net profit due to mother is 12.47/14.76/1,635 billion yuan, respectively, +1235%/18%/11%. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 23/19/17X, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, risk of falling short of expected passenger flow recovery in scenic spots, risk of falling short of expected risk of tourism spending power recovery falling short of expectations.