Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report. In 24Q1, it achieved operating income of 11.43 billion yuan, an increase of 24% year on year; net profit to mother of 270 million yuan, up 22.4% year on year; net profit after deduction of 260 million yuan, an increase of 18.7% year on year.
24Q1 Sinotruk Group's heavy truck sales increased along with the industry, and its market share further increased to 28.1%. According to China Automobile Association data, the overall sales volume of the heavy truck industry in 24Q1 was 272,400 vehicles, +13% year over year and +33% month over month. Sinotruk Group's Q1 heavy truck sales volume was 76,600 units, +13% YoY, +79% month-on-month, and its market share further increased to 28.1%, ranking first in the industry's sales volume. Judging from the detailed distribution structure of the Group's heavy trucks, Sinotruk Group's Q1 export sales volume was 37,000 units, accounting for 48% of the Group's total sales volume, 47% of the export industry's market share, maintaining the first ranking; the Group's Q1 natural gas heavy truck terminal actually sold 11,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 492%, far exceeding the industry's growth rate of 26%, ranking second; the Group's Q1 new energy heavy truck terminal actually sold 1,525 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46 units, with a market share of 14%. As can be seen, Sinotruk Group's sales performance in the export, gas vehicle, and new energy heavy truck segments was strong in the first quarter of this year. As the operator of the Group's core heavy truck brands, vehicle sales increased accordingly.
24Q1 The company achieved year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit, and the overall business situation was steady. Revenue side: The company's Q1 revenue was 11.43 billion yuan, +24% year over month, and the year-on-month increase mainly benefited from the company's heavy truck sales growth; profit side: the company's Q1 net profit was 270 million yuan, +22.4% year-on-month, and -35.5% month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate was basically in line with revenue growth. The month-on-month decline was mainly due to a high 23Q4 base; the company's Q1 gross margin was 7.9%, -0.05pct/-1.5pct, respectively. The main reason for the decline in gross margin compared to the previous month was increased terminal competition and development in the industry As a result of promotions; net The interest rate was 3.2%, -0.3 pct/-1.5 pct month-on-month, respectively. The net interest rate was still higher than the peer average. Expense side: The sales/management/ R&D/ finance cost rates for the company's Q1 were 0.9%/0.8%/1.8%/-0.6%, respectively, -0.4 pct/-0.1 pct/+0.9 pct, respectively, and +0.4 pct/-0.5pct/+0.1pct month-on-month, respectively. The total cost rate for the period was 2.9%, +0.3 pct/+0.2 pct month-on-month, respectively; during the period, R&D expenses increased sharply by 149% year on year to 200 million yuan, mainly because the company maintained The long-term competitiveness of the industry is due to the continuous increase in investment in product upgrading and technology research and development.
Maintain an “overweight” investment rating. The upward trend in the heavy truck industry cycle is clear. As a leading enterprise in the heavy truck industry, the company is continuously improving its product competitiveness, and its market share is rising steadily, and I am optimistic that the company's performance will improve steadily.
We expect the company's net profit to be 13.8/18.0/2.31 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, and the current market value corresponding to PE is 14/11/8x, respectively, to maintain an “increase in holdings” investment rating.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations and rising raw material prices have exceeded expectations.