It's been a mediocre week for Appian Corporation (NASDAQ:APPN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$31.98 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$150m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.45 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
NasdaqGM:APPN Earnings and Revenue Growth May 4th 2024
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Appian's nine analysts is for revenues of US$615.9m in 2024. This reflects a decent 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 16% from last year to US$1.24. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$615.8m and US$1.18 per share in losses. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.
With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 5.8% to US$42.22, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Appian, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$52.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Appian's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Appian's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Appian's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Appian's future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Appian analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Appian that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對於Appian Corporation(納斯達克股票代碼:APPN)的股東來說,這是平庸的一週,自發布最新季度業績以來,該股本週下跌了15%,至31.98美元。收入符合預期,爲1.5億美元,而法定虧損激增至每股0.45美元。分析師通常會在每份收益報告中更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估計中判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。根據這些結果,我們收集了最新的法定預測,以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
納斯達克通用汽車公司:APPN 收益和收入增長 2024 年 5 月 4 日
考慮到最新業績,Appian的九位分析師的共識預測是,2024年的收入爲6.159億美元。這表明與過去12個月相比,收入增長了10.0%。預計損失將得到控制,較去年縮小16%,至1.24美元。在這份最新報告之前,共識一直預計收入爲6.158億美元,每股虧損1.18美元。總體而言,分析師對最新的共識更新似乎有些喜憂參半。儘管收入預測保持穩定,但共識也略微提高了每股虧損的預期。
隨着明年預期虧損的增加,平均目標股價下降5.8%至42.22美元可能不足爲奇,分析師表示,虧損增加肯定是一個令人擔憂的問題。共識目標股價只是個別分析師目標的平均值,因此——可以很方便地看到基礎估計值的範圍有多廣。對Appian有一些不同的看法,最看漲的分析師將其估值爲52.00美元,最看跌的爲每股32.00美元。這些目標股價表明,分析師對該業務的看法確實有所不同,但這些估計的差異不足以向我們表明,有些人押注取得巨大成功或徹底失敗。
這些估計很有趣,但是在查看預測與Appian過去的表現以及與同一行業的同行進行比較時,可以更粗略地描述一些細節。很明顯,預計Appian的收入增長將大幅放緩,預計到2024年底的收入按年計算將增長14%。相比之下,過去五年的歷史增長率爲18%。將其與業內其他有分析師報道的公司並列,預計這些公司的收入(總計)每年將增長13%。因此,很明顯,儘管Appian的收入增長預計將放緩,但預計其增長將與行業大致持平。
底線
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師提高了明年的每股虧損預期。他們還重申了收入預期,預計該公司的增長速度將與整個行業大致相同。共識目標股價大幅下降,分析師似乎沒有對最新結果感到放心,這導致對Appian未來估值的估計降低。
考慮到這一點,我們仍然認爲該業務的長期發展軌跡對於投資者來說更爲重要。根據多位Appian分析師的估計,預計將持續到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
我們不想在遊行隊伍中下太多雨,但我們也確實爲Appian找到了一個你需要注意的警告標誌。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。