Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601872) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does China Merchants Energy Shipping Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that China Merchants Energy Shipping had debt of CN¥19.1b at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥22.0b over a year. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.66b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥14.5b.
A Look At China Merchants Energy Shipping's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, China Merchants Energy Shipping had liabilities of CN¥12.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥12.3b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥4.66b in cash and CN¥4.83b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥15.0b.
This deficit isn't so bad because China Merchants Energy Shipping is worth CN¥69.5b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
China Merchants Energy Shipping's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 1.8 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.5 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. We saw China Merchants Energy Shipping grow its EBIT by 7.8% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China Merchants Energy Shipping's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, China Merchants Energy Shipping recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 81% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
The good news is that China Merchants Energy Shipping's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And we also thought its EBIT growth rate was a positive. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that China Merchants Energy Shipping takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for China Merchants Energy Shipping that you should be aware of before investing here.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.