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We Think Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲皮博迪能源(紐約證券交易所代碼:BTU)可以繼續償還債務
Simply Wall St ·  05/05 21:26

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE:BTU) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

傳奇基金經理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到,皮博迪能源公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:BTU)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業發展的工具,但如果企業無法還清貸款人,那麼債務就任由他們擺佈。歸根結底,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能一無所有地離開。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常會看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人強迫他們以不利的價格籌集資金。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它取代了對一家能夠以高回報率進行再投資的公司的攤薄時。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務。

What Is Peabody Energy's Net Debt?

皮博迪能源的淨負債是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Peabody Energy had US$323.3m of debt, an increase on US$310.6m, over one year. But on the other hand it also has US$855.7m in cash, leading to a US$532.4m net cash position.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2024年3月,皮博迪能源在一年內有3.233億美元的債務,比3.106億美元有所增加。但另一方面,它也有8.557億美元的現金,淨現金狀況爲5.324億美元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:BTU Debt to Equity History May 5th 2024
紐約證券交易所:BTU 債務與股本比率歷史記錄 2024 年 5 月 5 日

How Strong Is Peabody Energy's Balance Sheet?

皮博迪能源的資產負債表有多強?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Peabody Energy had liabilities of US$805.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$1.40b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$855.7m and US$343.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$1.00b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,皮博迪能源在12個月內到期的負債爲8.05億美元,之後到期的負債爲14.0億美元。另一方面,它有8.557億美元的現金和價值3.431億美元的應收賬款將在一年內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出10億美元。

Peabody Energy has a market capitalization of US$2.81b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Peabody Energy boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

皮博迪能源的市值爲28.1億美元,因此,如果需要,它很可能會籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。但是,我們絕對希望留意其債務帶來過大風險的跡象。儘管負債值得關注,但皮博迪能源擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In fact Peabody Energy's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 58% in the last twelve months. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Peabody Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

實際上,皮博迪能源的儲蓄之處在於其低債務水平,因爲其息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了58%。收益下降(如果這種趨勢持續下去)最終也可能使即使是微不足道的債務也相當危險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來的收益將決定皮博迪能源未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您專注於未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Peabody Energy has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Peabody Energy produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 67% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。儘管皮博迪能源的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去的三年中,皮博迪能源產生了穩健的自由現金流,相當於其息稅前利潤的67%,與我們的預期差不多。這種冷硬現金意味着它可以在需要的時候減少債務。

Summing Up

總結

Although Peabody Energy's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of US$532.4m. The cherry on top was that in converted 67% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in US$414m. So we don't have any problem with Peabody Energy's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Peabody Energy (including 1 which is significant) .

儘管由於負債總額,皮博迪能源的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但其淨現金爲5.324億美元,顯然是樂觀的。最重要的是,它將息稅前利潤的67%轉換爲自由現金流,帶來了4.14億美元的收入。因此,我們對皮博迪能源使用債務沒有任何問題。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。爲此,你應該了解我們在Peabody Energy身上發現的3個警告信號(包括一個重要的警告信號)。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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