Investors in Lancaster Colony Corporation (NASDAQ:LANC) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.4% to close at US$192 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$471m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 26% to hit US$1.03 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Lancaster Colony from six analysts is for revenues of US$1.94b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 43% to US$6.88. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.92 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$216. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Lancaster Colony analyst has a price target of US$236 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$203. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Lancaster Colony's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Lancaster Colony is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$216, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Lancaster Colony going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.