Investors in Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.7% to close at US$34.54 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of US$8.2m came in 2.2% below estimates, but statutory losses were well contained with a per-share loss of US$1.45 being some 12% smaller than what the analysts were predicting. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Agios Pharmaceuticals after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Agios Pharmaceuticals

Following the latest results, Agios Pharmaceuticals' nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$85.7m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 192% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 27% to US$4.54. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$63.5m and losses of US$5.48 per share in 2024. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$41.67, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Agios Pharmaceuticals analyst has a price target of US$49.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Agios Pharmaceuticals shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Agios Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 3x annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 46% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So it looks like Agios Pharmaceuticals is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Agios Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Agios Pharmaceuticals that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.