Event Overview: Company Releases 2024 Quarterly Report
In the quarter, the company achieved operating income of 80 billion yuan, an increase of 3% and a decrease of 23%; net profit due to mother of 160 million yuan, a decrease of 21% and a decrease of 36%; net profit of 160 million yuan without return to mother, a decrease of 19% and a decrease of 37%; and gross profit margin of 31.78%, a decrease of 4.6 pcts and a decrease of 8.7 pcts.
The IGBT industry came out of a shortage period, and the company's performance slowed
The IGBT industry is expected to overcome the shortage in 2024. 20H2 Along with the global “core shortage” of automobiles, the IGBT industry continues to face a shortage situation. According to DIGITIMES Research, the global IGBT supply and demand gap reached 13.6% in 2022 due to strong demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaics; in 2023, as industry supply expanded, this gap narrowed to -2.5%. As supply-side production capacity continues to be released, the global IGBT industry is expected to break out of the shortage cycle in 2024. As the domestic IGBT leader, Sida Semiconductor's revenue growth rate is slowing down, while gross margin recedes due to changes in industry supply and demand, putting pressure on profits.
The SiC business is growing rapidly, and production capacity continues to be implemented
1) In 2023, the company's automotive-grade SiC MOSFET modules used in new energy vehicle main controllers were applied in large quantities, and several 800V system main motor controller projects using automotive-grade SiC MOSFET modules were added, which will continue to drive the company's 24-30 vehicle-grade SiC MOSFET module sales growth; 2) The company's own automotive-grade SiC MOSFET chips passed the company's vehicle verification and began batch production in multiple automotive power module packaging platforms shipment;
3) The company and Deep Blue Automobile jointly established Chongqing Anda Semiconductor Co., Ltd. to develop and produce high-performance, high-reliability automotive-grade IGBT modules and automotive-grade SiC MOSFET modules. It is expected that plant construction will be completed and production will begin in 2024.
Demand in the new energy industry is still growing, with models contributing to performance 1) As industry sentiment picks up, demand for power semiconductors in smart grids, new energy vehicles and other fields will increase dramatically. According to data from the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, the size of China's power semiconductor market is expected to reach 175.26 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 15.3%.
2) In 2022 - 2023, the company's automotive-grade IGBT modules received Tier 1 designation from a number of international first-tier brands and began large-scale delivery, and several new main motor controller projects were added; the company added a number of main motor controller projects for 800V system models based on seventh-generation micro-groove Trench Field Stop technology, and it is expected to continue to drive the company's performance growth in 2024.
Investment advice
In view of the pressure on the company's 24Q1 performance, we updated our 2024-26 profit forecast to be 10.2/12.8/1.53 billion yuan (the original forecast was 1,077/14.71/1,759 billion yuan), and the corresponding PE is 23/19/16 times. Given the company's leading position in the field of new energy, the company is expected to fully benefit from the revenue growth brought about by early model targeting. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The industry sentiment falls short of expectations, R&D progress falls short of expectations, production capacity falls short of expectations, and the risk of untimely updates of research and usage data.