MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$4.4b, some 3.7% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.67, 29% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from MGM Resorts International's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$17.1b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 11% to US$2.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$16.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.26 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$56.25, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on MGM Resorts International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$66.00 and the most bearish at US$46.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MGM Resorts International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MGM Resorts International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MGM Resorts International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards MGM Resorts International following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MGM Resorts International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for MGM Resorts International (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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