Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving total operating income of 5,075 billion yuan, +86.62% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 304 million yuan, +233.83% year on year; achieved gross sales margin of 20.62%, +7.25pct year on year; achieved net sales margin of 6.19%, +14.64pct year on year.
The layout integrates landscape and hydrogen storage, and rolling development contributes to profit growth: The company continues to increase investment in the photovoltaic industry, power electronics energy storage industry, and hydrogen energy industry to balance the intermittency and instability of renewable energy, thereby improving overall energy utilization efficiency and grid stability, thereby improving the development and operation capacity of its own new energy plants, thereby further improving the profitability of the company's self-built and self-operated new energy power plants. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of the company's operating new energy power plants was 2.56 GW, an increase of 70.47% over the same period last year; the installed capacity under construction was 3.30 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. During the reporting period, the new energy power plants operated by the company achieved a total power generation capacity of 4,016 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 40.46% over the previous year.
Develop overseas markets and seek new development models: According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) statistics, the installed capacity of global wind power generation increased by 77.6 GW in 2023. The installed capacity of China's new onshore wind power was 44.7 GW, and the installed capacity of offshore wind power was 5.1 GW, accounting for more than two-thirds of the world's new installed capacity.
In the current context of global energy transition and renewable energy development, the company is actively promoting an internationalization strategy.
Continuing to promote technological innovation, large-scale cost reduction is expected to exceed expectations: the stand-alone power of the company's onshore fan models is advancing to 5MW, 6MW, 7MW, and 8MW models with 3MW and 4MW main models.
The single power of the offshore fan model has been iterated from 5.5 MW to 6.45 MW to 8 MW, 11 MW, 12 MW, 16 MW, and higher models of 18 MW and 22 MW. In 2023, the company released the MySE22mW, the world's largest offshore wind turbine, and launched the MYSE18.X-20mW offshore wind turbine with the largest stand-alone capacity and the largest fan diameter in the world. Currently, fan prices remain stable. Combined with large-scale expansion and continued cost reduction, the company's profitability is expected to exceed expectations.
Investment proposal: We expect the company to achieve operating income of 376.10/432.51/47.576 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and net profit to mother of 24.27/29.65/38.60 billion yuan. The corresponding PE was 9.18/7.52/5.77 times, respectively, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Production expansion falls short of expectations; prices of upstream raw materials fluctuate; downstream demand falls short of expectations.