GrafTech International Ltd. (NYSE:EAF) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 58% share price drop in the last twelve months.
Even after such a large jump in price, GrafTech International may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x, since almost half of all companies in the Electrical industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.7x and even P/S higher than 4x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
How GrafTech International Has Been Performing
While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, GrafTech International's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on GrafTech International.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, GrafTech International would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 41%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 49% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest revenue growth is heading into negative territory, declining 9.6% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 10.0%.
In light of this, it's understandable that GrafTech International's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
The Bottom Line On GrafTech International's P/S
GrafTech International's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
It's clear to see that GrafTech International maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. As other companies in the industry are forecasting revenue growth, GrafTech International's poor outlook justifies its low P/S ratio. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for GrafTech International you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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GrafTech International Ltd.(紐約證券交易所代碼:EAF)的股價延續了最近的勢頭,僅在上個月就上漲了27%。儘管如此,30天的上漲並沒有改變這樣一個事實,即在過去十二個月中,長期股東的股票因股價下跌58%而暴跌。