First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) just released its latest quarterly results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 10.0% to hit US$794m. First Solar reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$2.20, which was a notable 11% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, First Solar's 31 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.52b in 2024. This would be a huge 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 42% to US$13.60. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$13.57 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$227, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values First Solar at US$356 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$182. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that First Solar's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect First Solar to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$227, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for First Solar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for First Solar (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.