ICBC(1398.HK):1Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH LOWER THAN OUR EXPECTATION
ICBC(1398.HK):1Q24 EARNINGS GROWTH LOWER THAN OUR EXPECTATION
Net interest margin (NIM) dropped in 1Q24. As ICBC strengthened its financial support to the real economy and small and medium sized enterprises, its NIM declined in 1Q24. Its NIM of interest-earning assets was 1.48% in 1Q24, down 13bps from 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 18bps in 2024.Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) attributable net profit dropped 2.8% YoY in 1Q24, below our expectation. As one of the biggest banks in China, its scale increased steadily. As of end-March 2024, its loans/deposits increased 4.9%/4.5% from end-2023. Its net interest income decreased 4.2% YoY in 1Q24, mainly due to the mixed effects of steady growth in interest-earning assets and decrease in NIM. Its NPL ratio was unchanged in 1Q24 as asset quality remained solid. ICBC maintained strict NPL recognition and its allowance to NPLs ratio increased slightly in 1Q24. Its H shares are now trading at below 0.4x 2023E P/B, which, in our view, is undervalued. Looking ahead, we believe ICBC will report positive growth in earnings with solid asset quality in 2024. Maintained BUY rating.
中國工商銀行（ICBC）的應占淨利潤在24年第一季度同比下降2.8％，低於我們的預期。作爲中國最大的銀行之一，其規模穩步增長。截至2024年3月底，其貸款/存款較2023年底增長了4.9％/4.5％。其淨利息收入在24年第一季度同比下降4.2％，這主要是由於利息收入資產的穩定增長和NIM下降的混合影響。由於資產質量保持穩定，其不良貸款率在24年第一季度保持不變。中國工商銀行維持了嚴格的不良貸款認可，其不良貸款額度在24年第一季度略有增加。其H股目前的交易價格低於2023年市盈率的0.4倍，在我們看來，該市盈率被低估了。展望未來，我們相信中國工商銀行將在2024年報告收益正增長，資產質量穩定。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Asset quality was solid in 1Q24. Its NPL ratio stood at 1.36% at end-March 2024, unchanged from 1.36% at end-December 2023. We expect its NPL ratio to drop to 1.35% in 2024. ICBC maintained strict NPL recognition policy in 1Q24. Its allowance to NPLs reached 216.3% at end-March 2024, against 214% at end-December 2023.
24 年第一季度的資產質量穩健。截至2024年3月底，其不良貸款率爲1.36％，與2023年12月底的1.36％持平。我們預計其不良貸款率將在2024年降至1.35％。中國工商銀行在24年第一季度維持了嚴格的不良貸款認可政策。截至2024年3月底，其不良貸款補貼達到216.3％，而2023年12月底爲214％。
Net interest margin (NIM) dropped in 1Q24. As ICBC strengthened its financial support to the real economy and small and medium sized enterprises, its NIM declined in 1Q24. Its NIM of interest-earning assets was 1.48% in 1Q24, down 13bps from 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 18bps in 2024.
淨利率（NIM）在24年第一季度有所下降。隨着中國工商銀行加強對實體經濟和中小型企業的金融支持，其國民收入在24年第一季度有所下降。其利息收益資產淨值在24年第一季度爲1.48％，較2023年下降了13個點子。我們預計其淨資產收益率將在2024年下降18個點子。
Fee and commission income dropped in 1Q24. Its net fee and commission income decreased 2.8% YoY in 1Q24, against negative YoY growth of 7.7% in 2023, mainly due to volatile equity markets.
費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度有所下降。其淨費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度同比下降2.8％，而2023年同比負增長7.7％，這主要是由於股市波動。
Key Risks to Rating
評級的主要風險
The bank might be under strong pressure to provide more support to the real economy if China's economy slows down significantly.
如果中國經濟大幅放緩，該銀行可能會面臨向實體經濟提供更多支持的巨大壓力。
Valuation
估價
We expect its ROAE to reach 9.9% in 2024. Its H shares are now trading at 0.38x 2024E P/B. Considering its solid asset quality, decent ROAE and around 7.9% dividend yield, we believe the bank is undervalued. We decreased our target price from HK$6.28 to HK$6.26, based on about 0.55x 2024E P/B.
我們預計其投資回報率將在2024年達到9.9％。其H股目前市盈率爲0.38倍的2024倍。考慮到其穩健的資產質量、不錯的投資回報率和約7.9％的股息收益率，我們認爲該銀行的估值被低估了。根據約0.55倍的2024年市盈率，我們將目標價從6.28港元下調至6.26港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
