As you might know, Topaz Energy Corp. (TSE:TPZ) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CA$78m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 20% to hit CA$0.04 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Topaz Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Topaz Energy from five analysts is for revenues of CA$328.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 20% to CA$0.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$332.9m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.39 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at CA$27.61. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Topaz Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$33.00 and the most bearish at CA$25.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Topaz Energy's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Topaz Energy's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$27.61, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Topaz Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Topaz Energy going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Topaz Energy that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.