BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):1Q24 RESULTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS;RAILWAY NETWORK BUSINESS A BRIGHT SPOT;LOSS AT JINGFU ANHUI FALLING
BEIJING-SHANGHAI HIGH SPEED RAILWAY(601816):1Q24 RESULTS BEAT EXPECTATIONS;RAILWAY NETWORK BUSINESS A BRIGHT SPOT;LOSS AT JINGFU ANHUI FALLING
2023 results in line; 1Q24 results beat
2023 年業績保持一致；24 年第一季度的業績超過預期
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (BJ-SH HSR) announced its 2023 and 1Q24 results. In 2023, revenue rose 110.4% YoY to Rmb40.68bn, and attributable net profit turned around YoY to Rmb11.55bn, in line with our and market expectations.
北京-上海高速鐵路（BJ-SH HSR）公佈了其2023年和24年第一季度的業績。2023年，收入同比增長110.4％，至406.8億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長至115.5億元人民幣，符合我們和市場的預期。
In 1Q24, revenue rose 13.1% YoY to Rmb10.11bn (+26.2% from 1Q19), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 33.1% YoY (+25.2% from 1Q19) to Rmb2.96bn, beating our and market expectations, which we attribute to: 1) better-than-expected network business; and 2) sharp loss reduction at Jingfu Anhui.
在24年第一季度，收入同比增長13.1％至人民幣101.1億元（較2019年第一季度增長26.2％），股東應占淨利潤同比增長33.1％（較2019年第一季度增長25.2％），超過了我們和市場的預期，我們將其歸因於：1）網絡業務好於預期；2）安徽景福大幅虧損。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Network business a bright spot. Railway network business: In 2023, the turnover of railway network business reached about 92.04mn train- kilometer, up 66.2% YoY, vs. 16.5% YoY in 2019; revenue from the railway network business grew 74.6% YoY to Rmb24.22bn in 2023. We think the rapid YoY growth of cross-line train operations may continue in 2024.
網絡業務是一個亮點。鐵路網業務：2023年，鐵路網絡業務營業額達到約9,204萬列車公里，同比增長66.2％，而2019年同比增長16.5％；鐵路網業務收入同比增長74.6％，至2023年人民幣242.2億元。我們認爲，跨線列車運營的快速同比增長可能會在2024年繼續。
Passenger transport business: In 2023, trains on the BJ-SH HSR provided services to 53.25mn passengers, up 209.1% YoY, largely flat with that in 2019. The firm's revenue from passenger transport in 2023 stood at about Rmb16.08bn, up 215.6% YoY and 2.8% YoY from 2019.
客運業務：2023年，北京-上海高鐵的列車爲5,325萬名乘客提供服務，同比增長209.1％，與2019年基本持平。該公司2023年的客運收入約爲160.8億元人民幣，同比增長215.6％，同比增長2.8％。
Jingfu Anhui sharply reduced losses in 1Q24, nearly reaching the breakeven point. Jingfu Anhui incurred a loss of about Rmb966mn in 2023, contributing a loss of Rmb628mn to the firm. Based on minority interest in 1Q24, we estimate that Jingfu Anhui recorded a loss of around Rmb46mn in 1Q24, down about Rmb200mn YoY, close to the breakeven point.
安徽景福在24年第一季度大幅減少虧損，幾乎達到盈虧平衡點。安徽景福在2023年蒙受了約9.66億元人民幣的虧損，給公司造成了6.28億元人民幣的虧損。根據24年第一季度的少數股權，我們估計安徽景福在24年第一季度錄得約4,600萬元人民幣的虧損，同比下降約2億元人民幣，接近盈虧平衡點。
Cash flow improved significantly; falling interest-bearing liabilities drove down financial costs. Operating cash flow reached Rmb21.08bn in 2023, a significant YoY improvement and a record high. In addition, the firm's net debt repayment was about Rmb9.13bn in 2023. The firm's interest expenses fell 16.4% YoY in 2023 and 19.5% YoY in 1Q24. The firm's liability-to-asset ratio was 24.7% in 1Q24, down 3.4ppt from 1Q23.
現金流顯著改善；計息負債下降壓低了財務成本。2023年運營現金流達到210.8億元人民幣，同比大幅改善，創歷史新高。此外，該公司的淨債務償還額在2023年約爲91.3億元人民幣。該公司的利息支出在2023年同比下降16.4％，在第二季度同比下降19.5％。該公司的負債與資產比率在24年第一季度爲24.7％，較23年第一季度下降了3.4個百分點。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Considering better-than-expected network business, Jingfu Anhui's performance and significant improvement in cash flow, we raise our 2024 earnings forecast 9.1% to Rmb14.3bn (up 23.9% YoY) and introduce 2025 earnings forecast of Rmb16.27bn (up 13.8% YoY). The stock is trading at 17.6x and 15.4x 2024e and 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price of Rmb6.14/sh, implying 21.1x and 18.5x 2024e and 2025e P/E, offering 19.9% upside.
考慮到網絡業務好於預期、安徽景福的表現和現金流的顯著改善，我們將2024年的收益預期上調9.1％至143億元人民幣（同比增長23.9％），並公佈了2025年162.7億元人民幣（同比增長13.8％）的收益預測。該股的市盈率爲2024年和2025年的17.6倍和15.4倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲6.14元人民幣，這意味着2024年的市盈率和2025年市盈率爲21.1倍和18.5倍，上漲幅爲19.9％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing travel due to complicated weather conditions; disappointing railway network business of Jingfu Anhui.
由於複雜的天氣條件，旅行令人失望；安徽景福的鐵路網絡業務令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。