GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):T1 OUTBOUND DFS OPERATION CONTRACT SIGNED;DIRECTION OF RENT ADJUSTMENT LARGELY IN LINE
GUANGZHOU BAIYUN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT(600004):T1 OUTBOUND DFS OPERATION CONTRACT SIGNED;DIRECTION OF RENT ADJUSTMENT LARGELY IN LINE
We think the direction of rent adjustment is largely in line with our expectation. Before the announcement, details regarding the T1 outbound DFS contract were not disclosed. The basic commission rate is set at 42% for T1 and T2 inbound DFS and 35% for T2 outbound DFS. The guaranteed rent for these stores is about Rmb7,800/sqm per month in the first contract year. We think the low guaranteed rent and sales commission rate for T1 outbound DFS may be due to the Ministry of Finance's 2019 policy regarding DFS rent [link in Chinese], which stipulates that the rent for outbound DFS should not exceed 1.5 times the average rent of tax-inclusive retail stores in terminals for domestic flights in principle, and the sales commission rate should not exceed 1.2 times the average of tax-inclusive retail stores in terminals for domestic flights.What's new
新增內容
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport announced it signed a contract with China Duty Free Group (CDFG) to manage the outbound duty-free store (DFS) project in its Terminal 1 (T1). CDFG will operate T1's outbound DFS business. The DFS project spans an area of 1,747.18sqm, and the transfer period of the management rights is 20 months + X months; X months is the period of renewal and is based on the date when terminal 3 (T3) starts operation and T1 stops operation of international flights. The rent will be either a guaranteed minimum payment or a royalty- based payment, whichever is higher. The guaranteed rent is set at Rmb2,180/sqm per month, which can be slightly adjusted based on passenger volume growth; the sales commission rate is 23.15%.
廣州白雲國際機場宣佈與中國免稅集團（CDFG）簽訂合同，管理其1號航站樓（T1）的出境免稅店（DFS）項目。CDFG將運營T1的出境DFS業務。DFS項目佔地面積爲1,747.18平方米，管理權的轉讓期限爲20個月+ X個月；X個月是續訂期，以3號航站樓（T3）開始運營和T1停止國際航班運營的日期爲準。租金將是有保障的最低還款額或以特許權使用費爲基礎的付款，以較高者爲準。保證租金定爲每月人民幣2,180元/平方米，可根據客運量的增長略有調整；銷售佣金率爲23.15％。
Comments
評論意見
We think the direction of rent adjustment is largely in line with our expectation. Before the announcement, details regarding the T1 outbound DFS contract were not disclosed. The basic commission rate is set at 42% for T1 and T2 inbound DFS and 35% for T2 outbound DFS. The guaranteed rent for these stores is about Rmb7,800/sqm per month in the first contract year. We think the low guaranteed rent and sales commission rate for T1 outbound DFS may be due to the Ministry of Finance's 2019 policy regarding DFS rent [link in Chinese], which stipulates that the rent for outbound DFS should not exceed 1.5 times the average rent of tax-inclusive retail stores in terminals for domestic flights in principle, and the sales commission rate should not exceed 1.2 times the average of tax-inclusive retail stores in terminals for domestic flights.
我們認爲租金調整的方向在很大程度上符合我們的預期。在宣佈之前，尚未披露有關T1出站DFS合同的詳細信息。T1和T2入站DFS的基本佣金率設定爲42％，T2出站DFS的基本佣金率設定爲35％。在第一個合同年度，這些商店的保證租金約爲每月人民幣7,800元/平方米。我們認爲，T1出境DFS的低保障租金和銷售佣金率可能是由於財政部2019年關於DFS租金的政策（中文鏈接），該政策規定，出境DFS的租金原則上不應超過國內航班航站樓含稅零售商店平均租金的1.5倍，銷售佣金率不應超過國內航班航站樓含稅零售商店平均租金的1.2倍。
We expect the contract to have a small impact on the firm's earnings. T1 resumed operation of international flights in summer 2023 [link in Chinese]. According to CAPA, only about 29% of international flights (measured by number of seats) use Terminal 1. Meanwhile, we think that the firm's DFS operation and layout in Terminal 2 may have advantages over those in Terminal 1, and thus the sales contribution of outbound DFS in Terminal 1 may be small.
我們預計該合同將對公司的收益產生微小影響。T1 於 2023 年夏季恢復國際航班的運營 [中文鏈接]。根據CAPA的數據，只有大約29％的國際航班（按座位數衡量）使用1號航站樓。同時，我們認爲該公司在2號航站樓的DFS運營和佈局可能比1號航站樓更具優勢，因此1號航站樓出境DFS的銷售貢獻可能很小。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We maintain our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts at Rmb1.20bn and Rmb1.24bn. The stock is trading at 20.7x 2024e and 20.0x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of Rmb12.90, implying 25x 2024e P/E and offering 22.5% upside. We suggest keeping an eye on the firm's DFS operation (mainly discounts on fragrances and cosmetics and introduction of tobacco and alcohol products) and the progress of its Phase III project.
我們將2024年和2025年的收益預測維持在12.0億元人民幣和12.4億元人民幣。該股的市盈率爲2024年的20.7倍和2025年的20.0倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，目標價爲12.90元人民幣，這意味着2024年的市盈率是25倍，上漲幅度爲22.5％。我們建議密切關注該公司的DFS業務（主要是香水和化妝品的折扣以及菸草和酒精產品的推出）及其第三階段項目的進展。
Risks
風險
Disappointing passenger demand and/or duty-free business development; higher-than-expected incremental cost from Phase III project.
旅客需求和/或免稅業務發展令人失望；第三階段項目的增量成本高於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
