US Presidential Election Impact On IPO Market Timing
US Presidential Election Impact On IPO Market Timing
As the U.S. gears up for the presidential election in November, the resurgence of initial public offerings (IPOs) is expected to experience a brief slowdown.
隨着美國爲11月的總統大選做準備，首次公開募股（IPO）的復甦預計將短暫放緩。
Market advisors and investors predict a temporary pause in IPO activities around the Nov. 5 election, although this is not anticipated to be a major disruption to the overall momentum of public listings.
市場顧問和投資者預測，在11月5日大選前後，首次公開募股活動將暫時暫停，儘管預計這不會對公開上市的整體勢頭造成重大幹擾。
According to Mark Schwartz, Ernst & Young's Americas IPO and SPAC advisory leader, the election might create a timing shuffle for some IPOs, pushing some to late 2024 or into 2025, while others might move up their schedules.
安永會計師事務所美洲IPO和SPAC諮詢負責人馬克·施瓦茨表示，此次選舉可能會給一些IPO造成時機調整，將一些IPO推遲到2024年底或2025年，而另一些則可能會推遲時間表。
"Whether there's a bigger pull forward or a push back really depends on how the narrative continues to develop," Schwartz told Bloomberg
施瓦茨告訴彭博社：“是更大的向前推動力還是倒退，實際上取決於敘事的持續發展。”
The IPO scene has regained some steadiness after a prolonged lull, with companies raising over $13.7 billion in the U.S. this year, surpassing the figures from the same timeframe last year. However, compared to the record-breaking year of 2021, the current volume of IPOs through April remains 92% lower, as per data from Bloomberg.
在經歷了長期的平靜之後，首次公開募股市場恢復了一定的穩定，各公司今年在美國籌集了超過137億美元的資金，超過了去年同期的數字。但是，根據彭博社的數據，與創紀錄的2021年相比，截至4月的IPO數量仍下降了92％。
Previn Waas, co-leader of Deloitte & Touche LLP's U.S. IPO services, notes that the election period typically causes a reduction in IPO activities, suggesting firms avoid the market noise during the two weeks before and after the election. "The election is more of, avoid the two weeks before and after, than who will win," Waas told Bloomberg.
德勤會計師事務所美國IPO服務聯合負責人普雷文·瓦斯指出，選舉期通常會導致首次公開募股活動減少，這表明企業在大選前後的兩週內避開市場噪音。瓦斯告訴彭博社：“選舉更多的是避開前後的兩週，而不是誰會獲勝。”
Historical data from ICR Capital indicates a significant dip in IPOs during November of election years, with an average of only six IPOs occurring, half the usual number. But, there is generally a rise in activity in the months leading up to the election to compensate for the slowdown.
ICR Capital的歷史數據顯示，在選舉年的11月份，首次公開募股數量大幅下降，平均只有六次首次公開募股，是通常數量的一半。但是，在選舉前的幾個月中，活動通常會增加，以彌補經濟放緩。
Why It Matters: Among the companies navigating this complex environment is Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ:DJT), the entity behind former President Donald Trump's platform, Truth Social. Since its Nasdaq debut on March 26, the company's stock has seen substantial volatility. This underscores the unpredictable nature of IPOs in politically charged climates.
爲何重要：駕馭這種複雜環境的公司中有特朗普媒體與科技集團（納斯達克股票代碼：DJT），這是前總統唐納德·特朗普平台Truth Social背後的實體。自3月26日在納斯達克首次亮相以來，該公司的股票一直波動很大。這凸顯了在充滿政治色彩的環境中首次公開募股的不可預測性。
Reddit Inc (NYSE:RDDT) is another firm feeling the market's scrutiny. Since its public offering, skepticism from U.S. brokerages about its profitability and the looming risk of becoming a "meme stock" have highlighted the challenges some companies face in this uncertain period.
Reddit Inc（紐約證券交易所代碼：RDDT）是另一家受到市場審查的公司。自公開募股以來，美國經紀商對其盈利能力的懷疑以及成爲 “模因股” 的迫在眉睫的風險凸顯了一些公司在這個不確定時期所面臨的挑戰。
Both companies, along with others in the IPO pipeline, are advised to remain vigilant of the election-related shifts in market sentiment and adjust their public offering strategies to align with the potential for increased market noise and volatility during this period.
建議兩家公司以及其他正在進行首次公開募股的公司對與選舉相關的市場情緒變化保持警惕，並調整其公開募股策略，以適應在此期間市場噪音和波動性增加的可能性。
Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。