American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NYSE:AEO), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a significant share price rise of 25% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. The recent share price gains has brought the company back closer to its yearly peak. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company's outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on American Eagle Outfitters's outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What's The Opportunity In American Eagle Outfitters?
American Eagle Outfitters appears to be expensive according to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. We've used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there's not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock's ratio of 28.79x is currently well-above the industry average of 15.15x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since American Eagle Outfitters's share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of American Eagle Outfitters look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let's also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to more than double in the upcoming, the future appears to be extremely bright for American Eagle Outfitters. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? AEO's optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe AEO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping tabs on AEO for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for AEO, which means it's worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing American Eagle Outfitters at this point in time. While conducting our analysis, we found that American Eagle Outfitters has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.