CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK(939.HK):1Q24 EARNINGS DROPPED SLIGHTLY BUT VALUATION REMAINS CHEAP
CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK(939.HK):1Q24 EARNINGS DROPPED SLIGHTLY BUT VALUATION REMAINS CHEAP
As China's economy still faces some complexities and China Construction Bank (CCB) continued to make contribution to support the real economy, its attributable net profit dropped 2.2% YoY in 1Q24, below our expectation, against 2.3% YoY growth in 2023. Its net interest income decreased 2.2% YoY in 1Q24, against negative YoY growth of 4.1% in 2023. Its net fee and commission income continued to decrease in 1Q24 amid weak investment sentiments. As of end-March 2024, its loans/deposits increased 4.9%/6.2% from end-2023. NPL ratio dropped slightly in 1Q24 as asset quality remained solid. We believe CCB will report positive earnings growth in 2024 as NIM will only decline slowly in 2H24 and solid asset quality will be maintained in 2024. Valuation is very attractive.
由於中國經濟仍面臨一些複雜問題，中國建設銀行（建行）繼續爲支持實體經濟做出貢獻，其應占淨利潤在24年第一季度同比下降2.2％，低於我們的預期，而2023年的同比增長2.3％。其淨利息收入在24年第一季度同比下降2.2％，而2023年同比負增長4.1％。由於投資情緒疲軟，其淨費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度繼續下降。截至2024年3月底，其貸款/存款較2023年底增長了4.9％/6.2％。由於資產質量保持穩定，不良貸款率在24年第一季度略有下降。我們認爲，建行將在2024年報告盈利正增長，因爲NIM只會在24年下半年緩慢下降，穩健的資產質量將在2024年保持穩定。估值非常有吸引力。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Asset quality remained solid in 1Q24. Its NPL ratio was 1.36% at end-March 2024, down from 1.37% at end-December 2023. We expect its NPL to stay at 1.36% in 2024. Its allowance to NPLs reached 238.2% in 1Q24 against 239.9% in 2023.
資產質量在 24 年第一季度保持穩定。截至2024年3月底，其不良貸款率爲1.36％，低於2023年12月底的1.37％。我們預計其不良貸款將在2024年保持在1.36％。其不良貸款補貼在24年第一季度達到238.2％，而2023年爲239.9％。
NIM dropped in 1Q24. As one of the largest banks in China, CCB has made more contributions to support the real economy, which dragged its NIM in 1Q24. We noted that its NIM stood at 1.57% in 1Q24, down 13bps from 2023. We expect its NIM to drop 19bps in 2024.
淨資產淨值在24年第一季度有所下降。作爲中國最大的銀行之一，建行在支持實體經濟方面做出了更多貢獻，這拖累了其在24年第一季度的淨資產負擔。我們注意到，其淨資產淨值在24年第一季度爲1.57％，較2023年下降了13個點子。我們預計其淨資產淨值將在2024年下降19個點子。
Its net fee and commission income decreased in 1Q24. Its net fee and commission income decreased 8.7% YoY in 1Q24, against negative growth of 0.3% YoY growth in 2023. We expect its net fee and commission income to report small decrease in 2024.
其淨費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度有所下降。其淨費用和佣金收入在24年第一季度同比下降8.7％，而2023年同比負增長0.3％。我們預計其淨費用和佣金收入將在2024年略有下降。
Key Risks to Rating
評級的主要風險
The bank might be under strong pressure to provide more support to the real economy if China's economy slows down significantly.
如果中國經濟大幅放緩，該銀行可能會面臨向實體經濟提供更多支持的巨大壓力。
Valuation
估價
Its H shares are now trading at 0.37x 2024E P/B. Its dividend yield may reach 8.6% in 2024. Given its steady expansion in scale, solid asset quality and decent ROE, we believe the bank is undervalued. We expect its ROAE to reach 10.8% in 2024. We revised down our target price from HK$8.23 to HK$8.21, based on about 0.6x 2024E P/B. Maintain BUY rating.
其H股目前的市盈率爲2024年的0.37倍，其股息收益率可能在2024年達到8.6％。鑑於其規模的穩步擴張、穩健的資產質量和良好的投資回報率，我們認爲該銀行的估值被低估了。我們預計其投資回報率將在2024年達到10.8％。根據約0.6倍的2024年市盈率，我們將目標價從8.23港元下調至8.21港元，維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。