ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):1Q24 OPERATIONAL DATA LARGELY ON TRACK
ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):1Q24 OPERATIONAL DATA LARGELY ON TRACK
1Q24 operational data largely on track
24 年第一季度的运营数据基本步入正轨
ENN Energy posted 29% YoY growth in energy sales for integrate energy business, 3% YoY growth in retail gas sales and 18% YoY fall in new connections in 1Q24. All these are on track with its full-year guidance. Looking ahead, we expect faster gas sales growth in 2Q24 given the low base last year. We trim our 2024 earnings forecast by 2% to factor in lower profit from international LNG trading. We reiterate our HOLD as we expect slow growth in the next two years after the earnings decline in 2024. Its dividend yield is also not attractive enough.
新南能源公布综合能源业务的能源销售同比增长29％，零售天然气销售同比增长3％，新连接的同比下降18％。所有这些都已步入其全年指引的正轨。展望未来，鉴于去年的低基数，我们预计24年第二季度天然气销售将更快地增长。我们将2024年的收益预测下调了2％，以考虑国际液化天然气交易的利润减少。我们重申持有，因为我们预计，在2024年收益下降之后，未来两年将缓慢增长。它的股息收益率也不够吸引人。
Key Factors for Rating
评级的关键因素
Within its retail gas sales, the gas sold to commercial & industrial (C&I) clients grew 3% YoY in 1Q24. The growth rate accelerated from 0.8% YoY in 4Q23. The company has stepped up effort to boost sales to C&I clients after losing a power plant client in 2Q23.
在其零售天然气销售中，出售给商业和工业（C＆I）客户的天然气在24年第一季度同比增长了3％。增长率从23年第四季度的同比0.8％加快。在23年第二季度失去发电厂客户后，该公司加大了对C＆I客户的销售的力度。
The connections of new residential clients dropped 18% YoY to 343k HHs in 1Q24. The company is on track to meeting its full-year target of 1.4-1.6m HHs, representing 14-24% YoY decline.
24年第一季度，新住宅客户的连接量同比下降18％，至34.3万个居民。该公司有望实现其全年140万至160万个HHS的目标，同比下降14-24％。
Its dollar margin improved RMB0.02/m3 to RMB0.48/m3 in 1Q24. This is also in line with its guidance of RMB0.02-0.03/m3 YoY improvement for the full-year.
其美元利润率在24年第一季度提高了0.02元/立方米至人民币0.48元/立方米。这也符合其全年同比增长0.02-0.03元人民币的预期。
As for the integrated energy segment, the volume of energy sales surged 29% YoY in 1Q24. This is also in-line with its full-year guidance of 20-30% YoY growth.
至于综合能源板块，能源销售量在24年第一季度同比增长29％。这也符合其全年同比增长20-30％的预期。
Looking ahead, we expect its retail gas sales to grow at faster rate in 2Q24 on low base. Its retail gas sales fell 18% YoY in 2Q23 after losing a power plant client to a more competitive supplier.
展望未来，我们预计其零售天然气销售将在24年第二季度以更快的速度在低基数上增长。在将发电厂客户输给更具竞争力的供应商之后，其零售天然气销售在23年第二季度同比下降了18％。
However, its profit from international sales of LNG was only RMB24m in 1Q24. We cut our forecast for full-year profit for LNG international trading from RMB970m to RMB330m, down 78% YoY. Hence, the company has to fill an earnings gap of about RMB1.2bn by its domestic operations in 2024. It will be difficult for the company to avoid earnings decline in 2024.
但是，其液化天然气国际销售利润在24年第一季度仅为人民币2400万元。我们将液化天然气国际贸易全年利润的预测从人民币9.7亿元下调至3.3亿元人民币，同比下降78％。因此，该公司必须在2024年通过其国内业务填补约12亿元人民币的收益缺口。该公司很难避免2024年的收益下降。
Key Risks for Rating
评级的主要风险
Faster-than-expected retail gas sales growth.
零售天然气销售增长快于预期。
Higher-than-expected dollar margin.
美元利润率高于预期。
Valuation
估价
We increase our DCF valuation and hence target price from HK$67.19 to HK$71.29 after updating our model with the company's operational data and annual report. The increase in valuation mainly comes from lower than expected net debt. This puts us at 10.6x 2024E core earnings.
在使用公司的运营数据和年度报告更新模型后，我们将差价合约估值和目标价格从67.19港元提高至71.29港元。估值的增加主要来自净负债低于预期。这使我们的核心收益达到2024E的10.6倍。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。