ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):1Q24 OPERATIONAL DATA LARGELY ON TRACK
ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):1Q24 OPERATIONAL DATA LARGELY ON TRACK
1Q24 operational data largely on track
24 年第一季度的運營數據基本步入正軌
ENN Energy posted 29% YoY growth in energy sales for integrate energy business, 3% YoY growth in retail gas sales and 18% YoY fall in new connections in 1Q24. All these are on track with its full-year guidance. Looking ahead, we expect faster gas sales growth in 2Q24 given the low base last year. We trim our 2024 earnings forecast by 2% to factor in lower profit from international LNG trading. We reiterate our HOLD as we expect slow growth in the next two years after the earnings decline in 2024. Its dividend yield is also not attractive enough.
新南能源公佈綜合能源業務的能源銷售同比增長29％，零售天然氣銷售同比增長3％，新連接的同比下降18％。所有這些都已步入其全年指引的正軌。展望未來，鑑於去年的低基數，我們預計24年第二季度天然氣銷售將更快地增長。我們將2024年的收益預測下調了2％，以考慮國際液化天然氣交易的利潤減少。我們重申持有，因爲我們預計，在2024年收益下降之後，未來兩年將緩慢增長。它的股息收益率也不夠吸引人。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Within its retail gas sales, the gas sold to commercial & industrial (C&I) clients grew 3% YoY in 1Q24. The growth rate accelerated from 0.8% YoY in 4Q23. The company has stepped up effort to boost sales to C&I clients after losing a power plant client in 2Q23.
在其零售天然氣銷售中，出售給商業和工業（C＆I）客戶的天然氣在24年第一季度同比增長了3％。增長率從23年第四季度的同比0.8％加快。在23年第二季度失去發電廠客戶後，該公司加大了對C＆I客戶的銷售的力度。
The connections of new residential clients dropped 18% YoY to 343k HHs in 1Q24. The company is on track to meeting its full-year target of 1.4-1.6m HHs, representing 14-24% YoY decline.
24年第一季度，新住宅客戶的連接量同比下降18％，至34.3萬個居民。該公司有望實現其全年140萬至160萬個HHS的目標，同比下降14-24％。
Its dollar margin improved RMB0.02/m3 to RMB0.48/m3 in 1Q24. This is also in line with its guidance of RMB0.02-0.03/m3 YoY improvement for the full-year.
其美元利潤率在24年第一季度提高了0.02元/立方米至人民幣0.48元/立方米。這也符合其全年同比增長0.02-0.03元人民幣的預期。
As for the integrated energy segment, the volume of energy sales surged 29% YoY in 1Q24. This is also in-line with its full-year guidance of 20-30% YoY growth.
至於綜合能源板塊，能源銷售量在24年第一季度同比增長29％。這也符合其全年同比增長20-30％的預期。
Looking ahead, we expect its retail gas sales to grow at faster rate in 2Q24 on low base. Its retail gas sales fell 18% YoY in 2Q23 after losing a power plant client to a more competitive supplier.
展望未來，我們預計其零售天然氣銷售將在24年第二季度以更快的速度在低基數上增長。在將發電廠客戶輸給更具競爭力的供應商之後，其零售天然氣銷售在23年第二季度同比下降了18％。
However, its profit from international sales of LNG was only RMB24m in 1Q24. We cut our forecast for full-year profit for LNG international trading from RMB970m to RMB330m, down 78% YoY. Hence, the company has to fill an earnings gap of about RMB1.2bn by its domestic operations in 2024. It will be difficult for the company to avoid earnings decline in 2024.
但是，其液化天然氣國際銷售利潤在24年第一季度僅爲人民幣2400萬元。我們將液化天然氣國際貿易全年利潤的預測從人民幣9.7億元下調至3.3億元人民幣，同比下降78％。因此，該公司必須在2024年通過其國內業務填補約12億元人民幣的收益缺口。該公司很難避免2024年的收益下降。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Faster-than-expected retail gas sales growth.
零售天然氣銷售增長快於預期。
Higher-than-expected dollar margin.
美元利潤率高於預期。
Valuation
估價
We increase our DCF valuation and hence target price from HK$67.19 to HK$71.29 after updating our model with the company's operational data and annual report. The increase in valuation mainly comes from lower than expected net debt. This puts us at 10.6x 2024E core earnings.
在使用公司的運營數據和年度報告更新模型後，我們將差價合約估值和目標價格從67.19港元提高至71.29港元。估值的增加主要來自淨負債低於預期。這使我們的核心收益達到2024E的10.6倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。