BYD(1211.HK):OUR FY24 FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK POST 1Q24
BYD(1211.HK):OUR FY24 FORECASTS STILL ON TRACK POST 1Q24
Maintain BUY. Although BYD's 1Q24 net profit of RMB 4.6bn missed our prior forecast on a massive R&D spending of RMB10.6bn, we believe the automaker is still on track to achieve our FY24E net profit forecast of RMB33bn. BYD's 1Q24 GPM also underscored our prior argument that its price cuts in Feb 2024 could be largely absorbed by cost reduction from suppliers. Nevertheless, we expect BYD to be more self-disciplined in SG&A and R&D expenses in the following quarters, should it put earnings at a higher priority.
維持買入。儘管比亞迪24年第一季度淨利潤爲46億元人民幣，未達到我們先前對106億元人民幣巨額研發支出的預測，但我們認爲該汽車製造商仍有望實現330億元人民幣的 FY24E 淨利潤預期。比亞迪的24年第一季度GPM也強調了我們先前的論點，即其2024年2月的降價將在很大程度上被供應商降低的成本所吸收。儘管如此，我們預計，如果比亞迪將收益放在更高的優先地位，它將在接下來的幾個季度在銷售和收購及研發費用方面更加自律。
1Q24 R&D beat our forecast. BYD's 1Q24 revenue beat our prior forecast by 4%, largely due to BYDE. Its GPM was 1.3ppts higher than our estimates, which was offset by its larger-than-expected selling expenses. We did expect a possible wide range of 1Q24 net profit due to uncertainties from R&D expenses and impairment. These two expenses combined in 1Q24 were about RMB4.1bn higher than our estimates, as the R&D ratio reached 8.5% last quarter, the highest in history. The 1Q24 net profit would have been RMB6.9bn (vs. the actual RMB4.6bn), if the R&D ratio was the same as FY23 (6.6%), which would be in line with our prior net profit forecast.
24 年第 1 季度研發超出了我們的預期。比亞迪24年第一季度的收入比我們先前的預測高出4％，這主要歸因於比亞迪。其GPM比我們的估計高出1.3個百分點，但被其高於預期的銷售支出所抵消。由於研發費用和減值的不確定性，我們確實預計 24 年第一季度的淨利潤範圍可能很大。這兩項支出在24年第一季度加起來比我們的估計高出約41億元人民幣，上個季度的研發比率達到8.5％，爲歷史最高水平。如果研發比率與23財年（6.6％）相同，則24年第一季度的淨利潤將爲69億元人民幣（實際爲46億元人民幣），這將符合我們之前的淨利潤預測。
20% sales volume growth in FY24 still achievable with resilient margins. We are of the view that our FY24E sales volume forecast of 3.6mn units is still achievable, especially given the recent stimulus measures and overseas ramp-up. Such potential topline growth, along with the stimulus measures, could make its gross margin resilient, in our view. Even including its rising selling expenses, its 1Q24 margin (GPM-selling exp ratio) was close to that in 4Q23 when the sales volume was 51% higher (0.63mn units in 1Q24 vs. 0.94mn units in 4Q23). BYD's net profit per vehicle of RMB7,300 in 1Q24 was about RMB1,900 lower than that in 4Q23, while the automaker cut prices of most models by RMB20,000-30,000 in mid-Feb 2024.
憑藉彈性的利潤率，在24財年仍可實現20％的銷售量增長。我們認爲，我們對360萬輛的 FY24E 銷量預測仍然可以實現，特別是考慮到最近的刺激措施和海外的增長。我們認爲，這種潛在的收入增長加上刺激措施，可以使其毛利率具有彈性。即使包括其不斷增長的銷售費用，其24年第一季度的利潤率（GPM銷售支出比率）也接近於23年第四季度的銷量增長了51％（24年第一季度爲63萬輛，而23年第四季度爲94萬輛）。比亞迪在24年第一季度每輛車的淨利潤爲人民幣7,300元，比23年第四季度低約1900元人民幣，而該汽車製造商在2024年2月中旬將大多數車型的價格下調了2萬至3萬元人民幣。
Earnings/Valuation. It appears to us that BYD did not prioritize its 1Q24 earnings as it did not utilize its flexibility to lift its net profit amid its previous high earnings quality. We expect BYD to be more self-disciplined in SG&A and R&D expenses in the following quarters. We keep our FY24-25E net profit estimates largely unchanged, although we revise up both GPM and SG&A. Therefore, we maintain our BUY rating and target price of HK$262, still based on 20x our FY24E EPS. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales and/or margins than expected, as well as a sector de- rating.
收益/估值。在我們看來，比亞迪沒有優先考慮其24年第一季度的收益，因爲在之前的盈利質量很高的情況下，它沒有利用靈活性來提高淨利潤。我們預計，在接下來的幾個季度中，比亞迪在銷售和收購和研發費用方面將更加自律。儘管我們上調了GPM和SG&A，但我們對 FY24-25E 的淨利潤預期基本保持不變。因此，我們維持買入評級和262港元的目標價格，仍以 FY24E 每股收益的20倍爲基礎。我們評級和目標價格的主要風險包括銷售額和/或利潤率低於預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。