SINOPEC(600028):1Q24 EARNINGS MISSED;EXPECT STRONGER EARNINGS IN 2Q24
SINOPEC(600028):1Q24 EARNINGS MISSED;EXPECT STRONGER EARNINGS IN 2Q24
Sinopec's earnings dropped 10% YoY to RMB18.7bn in 1Q24, 12% below our forecasts. The discrepancy mainly came from the weaker- than-expected QoQ recovery at the refining segment. We expect the company to see higher earnings in 2Q24 as the rise in oil price since mid-March will not only result in higher earnings for the E&P segment, but also lead to short-term boost in refining profit. While we trim our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 1% and lower our target price for its H shares to HK$4.99, we reiterate our BUY call.
中石化第二季度收益同比下降10％，至人民幣187億元，比我們的預期低12％。這種差異主要來自煉油板塊的季度復甦低於預期。我們預計，該公司將在24年第二季度實現更高的收益，因爲自3月中旬以來油價的上漲不僅會增加勘探和生產板塊的收益，而且還會帶來煉油利潤的短期增長。雖然我們將2024-26年的收益預期下調了1％，並將其H股的目標價格下調至4.99港元，但我們重申了買入呼籲。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The decline in earnings was mainly due to the 33% YoY fall in the operating profit of its refining segment to RMB7.0bn in 1Q24. While it jumped 3.2x QoQ from the very low level in 4Q23, it was 31% below our forecast. The refining margin only recovered US$1.2/bbl QoQ (to US$7.15/bbl) in 1Q24, US$1.6/bbl lower than our forecast. The miss was mainly because of the decline in cracking spread of jet fuel.
收益下降的主要原因是其煉油板塊的營業利潤在24年第一季度同比下降33％至70億元人民幣。雖然它從23年第四季度的極低水平上漲了3.2倍，但比我們的預測低了31％。煉油利潤率在24年第一季度環比僅恢復了1.2美元/桶（至7.15美元/桶），比我們的預測低1.6美元。這次失誤主要是由於噴氣燃料的裂解價差下降。
All other segments posted small YoY growth in earnings or reduced loss. In particular, the operating loss of the chemicals segment narrowed 12% YoY to RMB1.6bn in 1Q24, only half of our expected loss. Its improved product mix with increased ratio of aromatics and high value-added resins lifted profitability. The 10% YoY fall in unit processing cost also helped.
所有其他板塊的收益均同比小幅增長或虧損減少。特別是，化學品板塊的營業虧損在24年第一季度同比縮小了12％，至16億元人民幣，僅爲我們預期虧損的一半。其產品組合的改善以及芳烴和高附加值樹脂比例的提高提高了盈利能力。單位加工成本同比下降10％也有所幫助。
We expect the company to see higher earnings in 2Q24 on a QoQ basis. The rise in oil price since mid-March will not only result in higher earnings for the E&P segment, but also lead to short-term boost of the refining margin and inventory gains for both refining and marketing segments.
我們預計，該公司將在24年第二季度實現更高的收益。自3月中旬以來油價的上漲不僅將提高勘探和生產板塊的收益，而且還將短期內提振煉利潤率和煉油和營銷板塊的庫存增長。
The company's H shares look attractive as we expect them to offer about 8% dividend yield for the coming three years.
該公司的H股看起來很有吸引力，因爲我們預計它們在未來三年內將提供約8％的股息收益率。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Sharp fall in oil price.
油價急劇下跌。
Lower-than-expected profitability of downstream operations.
下游業務的盈利能力低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We slightly lower our target price for its H shares from HK$5.02 to HK$4.99 after the small cuts in our earnings forecasts and the recent depreciation of RMB against HK$. Our target valuation remains 0.67x 2024E P/B.
在收益預測小幅下調以及最近人民幣兌港元貶值之後，我們將H股的目標價格從5.02港元小幅下調至4.99港元。我們的目標估值仍是2024E市盈率的0.67倍。
We also lower our target price for its A shares from RMB7.12 to RMB7.11. We still base our target price on its 3-month average A-H premium which has stayed at 54% since late March.
我們還將其A股的目標價格從人民幣7.12元下調至人民幣7.11元。我們的目標價格仍以其3個月平均A-H保費爲基礎，自3月下旬以來，該保費一直保持在54％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。