Affected by policy expectations and incremental capital, real estate stocks experienced a sharp rise yesterday, but today they generally declined. As of press release, Vanke Enterprise (02202) fell 7.27% to HK$4.59; Sunac China (01918) fell 6.21% to HK$1.36.
On April 30, due to policy expectations and incremental capital, real estate stocks experienced a sharp rise yesterday, but today they generally declined. As of press release,$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$decreased by 7.27% to HK$4.59;$SUNAC (01918.HK)$decreased by 6.21% to HK$1.36;$SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK)$decreased by 5.26% to HK$0.54;$SEAZEN (01030.HK)$It fell 2.17% to HK$1.35.
According to the news, J.P. Morgan Chase published a report saying that since domestic housing stocks bottomed out in mid-April, the sector has rebounded 16%, outperforming the MSCI China Index (+7%). I believe it is mainly driven by capital flows. Also, with the lifting of purchase restrictions in Chengdu, Nanjing has relaxed the conditions for settling in to buy a house, and you can settle in directly. Market expectations that first-tier cities will ease purchase restrictions in May continue to heat up, which may also drive related momentum.
However, J.P. Morgan believes that the domestic housing or stock surge may only be short-lived. Judging from the fundamentals of the industry, the bank indicates that sales in April were worse than expected (compared with the same period last year, sales have dropped 40% since April; compared with the four-year average, sales have fallen 57% so far, which is the worst month in recent years). The bank believes that a sustainable rebound in the industry requires a sustainable sales recovery and stronger policy responses.