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Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Commercial Metals Company (NYSE:CMC)?

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 29 18:18

With its stock down 9.0% over the past month, it is easy to disregard Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company's financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Specifically, we decided to study Commercial Metals' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors' money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Commercial Metals is:

16% = US$680m ÷ US$4.2b (Based on the trailing twelve months to February 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.16.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don't share these attributes.

Commercial Metals' Earnings Growth And 16% ROE

To start with, Commercial Metals' ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 10.0% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This probably laid the ground for Commercial Metals' significant 34% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then compared Commercial Metals' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 23% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:CMC Past Earnings Growth April 29th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It's important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Commercial Metals is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Commercial Metals Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Commercial Metals has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 8.7%, meaning that it has the remaining 91% left over to reinvest into its business. So it looks like Commercial Metals is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business, which shows in its earnings growth.

Besides, Commercial Metals has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 16% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 11% over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that Commercial Metals' performance has been quite good. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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