服务器再制造产能持续爬坡，存货增长业绩潜力巨大：截至2024 年Q1公司存货14.48 亿元，同比增长61.16%，环比增加1.33 亿元，我们认为主要是以服务器再制造为代表的新业务产品。我们认为，公司业绩高增长的同时存货亦保持快速增长态势，或表明公司产能仍在持续爬坡期，市场前景广阔。Incident: The company released its 2024 quarterly report, achieving operating income of 1,759 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.38%, and realized net profit of 162 million yuan, an increase of 253.42% over the previous year, and achieved deducted non-net profit of 162 million yuan, an increase of 296.84% over the previous year. The performance exceeded expectations.
Gross margin has increased, operating expenses have been managed reasonably, and profitability has continued to improve. The company's gross margin for Q1 in 2024 was 16.32%, up 3.27pct year on year, sales rate was 0.32%, down 0.11pct year on year, management rate was 1.58%, down 0.27pct year on year. We believe that with initiatives such as new categories, new customers, and overseas exhibitions, the company has achieved rapid growth while ensuring that all costs and expenses are manageable, indicating that the company's high growth is not through sacrificing prices or excessive marketing, etc., and long-term growth can be expected to continue.
Strong investment in R&D gradually formed a positive cycle of high growth+high investment+high profit: R&D expenses were 43.112 million yuan, an increase of 92.99% over the previous year, and a sharp increase in the same direction as the scale of revenue increased. We believe that whether it is server remanufacturing with high requirements for data/environmental safety and technical quality control, or the AIOT industry, which has many categories where downstream demand changes rapidly, the requirements for technical capabilities are high. As downstream demand continues to be strong, the company maintains rapid revenue growth and high profitability, further increases R&D investment to ensure industrial barriers, and has broad scope for performance growth.
Server remanufacturing production capacity continues to rise, and the potential for inventory growth is huge: as of 2024, the company's inventory was 1,448 billion yuan, up 61.16% year over year, and 133 million yuan month-on-month. We think it is mainly a new business product represented by server remanufacturing. We believe that the high growth in the company's performance and inventory also maintained a rapid growth trend, which may indicate that the company's production capacity continues to rise and the market prospects are broad.
Investment advice: The company's original business has been fully upgraded, and demand in the server remanufacturing market is strong, and it is expected to usher in a period of rapid performance growth. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6.448 billion yuan, 8.754 billion yuan and 11.618 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 561 million yuan, 756 million yuan, and 989 million yuan, and PE 26 times, 19 times, and 15 times. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Cloud business development falls short of expectations, server business falls short of expectations, macroeconomic fluctuations.
