需求疲弱叠加农产品亏损，全年业绩承压。2023 年，公司大宗商品经营营收为4392 亿元，同比下降15.6%，行业产能过剩、需求增速放缓，大宗商品经营承压。其中，金属矿产/农产品/能源化工/新能源货量同比分别+12.5%/+15.3%/+15.3%/+71.1%，公司市场份额逆势增长。2023 年，公司金属矿产/农产品/能源化工/新能源期现毛利率同比分别+0.33pct/-3.61pct/-0.56pct/-0.12pct 至1.91%/-0.89%/1.21%/1.78%，因谷物原粮价格下行，下游客户降低库存，叠加采购季节集中、销售分批进行的采销节奏，农产品供应链期现毛利率均同比下降，拖累公司盈利，2023 年大宗商品经营期现毛利同比下降31.8%。Description of the event
Xiamen Xiangyu disclosed its 2023 annual report: In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 459.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%; realized net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.3%; in the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 90.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.2%, and realized net profit to mother of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. In 2023, the company plans to distribute cash dividends of 3 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares. Cash dividends account for 50% of the company's net profit (after deducting interest on perpetual bonds) attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023.
Incident comments
Weak demand compounded losses in agricultural products, putting pressure on full-year results. In 2023, the company's commodity operating revenue was 439.2 billion yuan, down 15.6% year on year. The industry was overcapacity, demand growth slowed, and commodity operations were under pressure. Among them, the volume of metal minerals/agricultural products/energy chemicals/new energy sources was +12.5%/+15.3%/+15.3%/+71.1% year-on-year respectively, and the company's market share bucked the trend. In 2023, the current gross margin of the company's metal minerals/agricultural products/energy chemicals/new energy period was +0.33pct/-3.61pct/-0.56pct/-0.12pct to 1.91%/-0.89%/1.21%/1.78% year on year. Due to the decline in raw grain prices, downstream customers reduced inventory, compounded by concentrated procurement seasons, and the current gross margin of the agricultural products supply chain declined by 31.8% year on year.
Q4 Gross profit increased year over year, and increased credit impairment dragged down performance. 2023Q4, the company's gross profit was 2.89 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year. During 2023Q4, the company's expenses decreased by 30.1% year-on-year to 1.20 billion yuan, and management expenses were better controlled.
2023Q4, the company's credit impairment loss was -82 billion yuan, mainly due to an increase in preparation for bad debts compared to the same period last year. In the end, the company's net profit to mother fell 15.3% year over year to 390 million yuan.
International expansion is accelerating, opening up a new growth curve. In 2023, the company promoted the construction of overseas platforms, accelerated the international layout, and achieved a total import and export volume of about US$19.9 billion, an increase of 16% over the previous year; of these, total imports were about US$17 billion, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year. The company achieved breakthroughs in international business in the categories of aluminum, agricultural products, coking coal, oil products, and new energy. At the same time, a new SMX owned ship was added in Indonesia. Indonesia's domestic shipping barge business volume increased by more than 80% year on year; China-Indonesia and its extended routes increased by more than 200% year on year; traffic volume on China-Vietnam and China-Thailand routes increased 7.5% year on year; international dry bulk channels reached thousands of ports, and the number of flights operated increased 6 times year on year; and the number of inbound and outbound shipping containers on China-Europe and Central Asia trains increased 60% year on year.
Short-term pressure will not change leading values, and we expect management to bottom out and improve. In 2023, the effective demand of the industry was insufficient, compounded by some overcapacity, commodity price fluctuations declined, and the company's supply chain profit declined. However, the company relied on resources, services and risk control advantages to achieve contrarian market share growth, a steady increase in operating volume, and continued to be optimistic about an increase in leading share. In 2024, the company firmly believes in steady development, actively adjusts agricultural product management strategies, accelerates the expansion of internationalization, and looks forward to improvements in the company's operations.
At the same time, the company maintains a good dividend policy, and the dividend ratio is very attractive. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 17.7/22.1/2.69 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 8.9/7.1/5.8X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Commodity prices fluctuate greatly;
2. Supply chain business operation risks;
3. Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
