Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (NYSE:KNSL) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 4.1% to hit US$373m. Kinsale Capital Group also reported a statutory profit of US$4.24, which was an impressive 29% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kinsale Capital Group's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.55b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$14.98, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$14.91 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$505, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kinsale Capital Group at US$607 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$420. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Kinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 32% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Kinsale Capital Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$505, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Kinsale Capital Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Kinsale Capital Group .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.