DAQIN RAILWAY(601006):2023 AND 1Q24 RESULTS MISS DIVIDEND REMAINS LARGELY STABLE
DAQIN RAILWAY(601006):2023 AND 1Q24 RESULTS MISS DIVIDEND REMAINS LARGELY STABLE
Trends to watch2023 and 1Q24 results miss our and market expectations
2023 年和 24 年第一季度的業績未達到我們和市場的預期
Daqin Railway announced its 2023 and 1Q24 results. In 2023, revenue rose 6.9% YoY to Rmb81.02bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 6.6% YoY to Rmb11.93bn, missing our and market expectations, mainly due to slightly higher-than-expected passenger and staff costs.
大秦鐵路公佈了其2023年和24年第一季度的業績。2023年，收入同比增長6.9％，至810.2億元人民幣，股東應占淨利潤同比增長6.6％，至119.3億元人民幣，未達到我們和市場的預期，這主要是由於乘客和員工成本略高於預期。
In 1Q24, revenue fell 7.9% YoY to Rmb18.27bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders declined 16.6% YoY to Rmb3.05bn, missing market expectations. This was mainly due to weak coal transport volume (transport volume of Daqin Line decreased 6.0% YoY in 1Q24).
在24年第一季度，收入同比下降7.9％至人民幣182.7億元，股東應占淨利潤同比下降16.6％，至30.5億元人民幣，未達到市場預期。這主要是由於煤炭運輸量疲軟（大秦線的運輸量在24年第一季度同比下降6.0％）。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Railway transport volume of the Daqin Line was slightly weak in 1Q24. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, raw coal output fell 4.1% YoY to about 1.11bnt in 1Q24. Data from cctdcoal.com shows that railway coal transport volume rose 1.8% YoY to 710mnt in 1Q24, and railway transport volume of key state-owned coal mines grew 3.8% YoY to 316mnt over the same period. The firm announced that the freight volume of the Daqin Line decreased 6.0% YoY to 98.24mnt in 1Q24.
大秦線的鐵路運輸量在24年第一季度略有疲軟。根據國家統計局的數據，24年第一季度原煤產量同比下降4.1％，至約11.1億噸。cctdcoal.com的數據顯示，鐵路煤炭運輸量在24年第一季度同比增長1.8％至7.1億噸，同期國有主要煤礦的鐵路運輸量同比增長3.8％，達到3.16億噸。該公司宣佈，大秦線的貨運量在24年第一季度同比下降6.0％，至98.24萬噸。
The firm announced a total dividend of Rmb6.93bn for 2023, implying a dividend payout ratio of 58.1%. The dividend for 2023 was slightly lower than that in 2018-2022 (Rmb7.1-7.3bn). Given that the outstanding balance of Daqin Railway's convertible bonds was Rmb14.737bn as of April 26, 2024, the firm plans to keep the total cash dividend distribution unchanged, and eventually adjust the cash dividend per share based on the total share capital on the date of profit distribution. Based on the firm's latest share capital and announced cash dividends, its dividend yield at the current price is about 5.3%. We estimate the dividend yield at about 4.8% after considering conversion of all convertible bonds.
該公司宣佈2023年的總股息爲69.3億元人民幣，這意味着股息支付率爲58.1％。2023年的股息略低於2018-2022年的股息（71-73億元人民幣）。鑑於截至2024年4月26日，大秦鐵路可轉換債券的未償餘額爲147.37億元人民幣，該公司計劃保持現金股息分配總額不變，並最終根據利潤分配之日的總股本調整每股現金分紅。根據該公司的最新股本和宣佈的現金分紅，按當前價格計算，其股息收益率約爲5.3％。在考慮了所有可轉換債券的轉換後，我們估計股息收益率約爲4.8％。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We lower our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts 17.1% and 15.3% to Rmb11.11bn and Rmb11.36bn as costs slightly beat our expectations and transport volume declines, implying YoY growth of -6.9% and 2.3%. Considering the downward revision of earnings forecasts but dividend remaining largely stable, we cut our target price 9.3% to Rmb7.89, implying 12.5x 2024e and 12.1x 2025e P/E, offering 6.0% upside. The stock is trading at 11.8x 2024e and 11.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating.
我們將2024年和2025年的收益預期下調了17.1％和15.3％，至111.1億元人民幣和113.6億元人民幣，原因是成本略高於我們的預期，運輸量下降，這意味着同比增長-6.9％和2.3％。考慮到盈利預測向下修正但股息基本保持穩定，我們將目標價格下調9.3％至7.89元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲12.5倍，2025年市盈率爲12.1倍，上漲幅爲6.0％。該股的交易價格爲2024年的11.8倍，市盈率爲2025年的11.5倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。
Risks
風險
Higher-than-expected staff costs; disappointing transport volume of the Daqin Line.
人員成本高於預期；大秦線的運輸量令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
