We expect investors to focus on the sales performance of Puma Biotechnology, Inc.’s PBYI sole marketed drug, Nerlynx (neratinib), and updates related to its pipeline candidate, alisertib, when it reports first-quarter 2024 results on May 2 after market close.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors at Play

Puma Biotechnology’s top line comprises sales of Nerlynx in the United States, license fees from its sub-licensees and royalty revenues. Nerlynx is indicated for treating early-stage HER2-positive breast cancer.

In the last reported quarter, product revenues from Nerlynx were negatively impacted by lower enrollments. It remains to be seen whether the same trend continued or reversed in the to-be-reported quarter.

Despite lower year-over-year Nerlynx sales, total revenues increased in the last reported quarter, a trend most likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.

Shares of PBYI have rallied 12.7% so far this year against the industry’s decline of 9.4%.

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As was the case in the fourth quarter, Puma Biotechnology is unlikely to have recorded any license revenues in the first quarter as well.

In March 2024, the FDA notified the company that its investigational new drug application has been reviewed and that it can proceed with the clinical development of alisertib for the treatment of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer in the phase II ALISCA-Breast1 trial study.

PBYI is already conducting ALISCA-Lung1, a phase II study (PUMA-ALI-4201) evaluating alisertib as monotherapy for the treatment of patients with extensive stage small cell lung cancer.

Investors will be keen to get more updates on the development plans of alisertib on the upcoming earnings call.

The activities related to pipeline development are most likely to have escalated Puma Biotechnology’s operating expenses in the first quarter.

Earnings Surprise History

Puma Biotechnology has a mixed record of earnings surprise history so far. The company’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same on the remaining occasion. PBYI delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 147.49%. In the last reported quarter, Puma Biotechnology’s earnings missed estimates by 16.22%.

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Puma Biotechnology, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Puma Biotechnology, Inc. Quote

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Puma Biotechnology this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Puma Biotechnology has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 16 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Puma Biotechnology currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. ATRA has an Earnings ESP of +33.04% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Atara Biotherapeutics have gained 36.5% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of Atara Biotherapeutics beat estimates in one of the last four quarters and missed the same on the remaining three occasions. On average, ATRA delivered a negative earnings surprise of 20.30% in the last four quarters.

Sarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +108.99% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of Sarepta have gained 32.1% in the year-to-date period. Earnings of Sarepta beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 464.56%. SRPT will report first-quarter earnings results on May 1.

argenx SE ARGX has an Earnings ESP of +10.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

argenx stock has declined 3.1% year to date. argenx beat earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, met the same once and missed the mark on the other occasion. ARGX delivered an average earnings surprise of 14.18% in the last four quarters.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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