SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):RESULTS IN LINE; DIVIDEND PAYOUT SOLID AND SUSTAINED
SHAANXI COAL INDUSTRY(601225):RESULTS IN LINE; DIVIDEND PAYOUT SOLID AND SUSTAINED
2023 and 1Q24 results in line with our expectations
2023 年和 24 年第一季度的業績符合我們的預期
Shaanxi Coal announced 2023 and 1Q24 results: In 2023, revenue rose 2.4% YoY to Rmb170.9bn, net profit attributable to shareholders fell 39.7% YoY to Rmb21.2bn, and recurring net profit was Rmb24.7bn, down 16.9% YoY. In 1Q24, revenue fell 9.7% YoY to Rmb40.4bn, net profit attributable to shareholders fell 32.7% to Rmb4.65bn, and recurring net profit fell 26.3% to Rmb5.35bn, in line with our expectations.
陝西煤業公佈2023年和24年第一季度業績：2023年，收入同比增長2.4％，至1709億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降39.7％至212億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤爲247億元人民幣，同比下降16.9％。在24年第一季度，收入同比下降9.7％，至404億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤下降32.7％至46.5億元人民幣，經常性淨利潤下降26.3％，至53.5億元人民幣，符合我們的預期。
2023 results review:
2023 年業績回顧：
1) Output continued to increase. In 2023, the commercial coal output rose 4.1% YoY to 164mn tonnes, and total sales volume increased 12.6% YoY to 253mn tonnes, with sales volume of self-produced coal rising 5.27% YoY to 164mn tonnes.
1) 產量持續增加。2023年，商業煤炭產量同比增長4.1％，達到1.64億噸，總銷售量同比增長12.6％，達到2.53億噸，自產煤的銷量同比增長5.27％，達到1.64億噸。
2) Coal prices declined. ASP of self-produced coal fell 14.12% YoY to Rmb575/t in 2023. The spot price of Qinhuangdao 5,500kCal thermal coal fell 24% YoY to Rmb972/t.
2）煤炭價格下跌。2023年，自產煤炭的總市值同比下降14.12％，至人民幣575元/噸。秦皇島5,500千卡動力煤的現貨價格同比下降24％，至人民幣972元/噸。
3) Cost per tonne of coal fell. In 2023, the all-in cost per tonne of raw coal fell Rmb22.82 or 7.14% YoY to Rmb296.59, with production safety expenses rising Rmb11.79 or 52.45% YoY, material expenses, maintenance and repair expenses, outsourcing business expenses, and related taxes and surcharges falling Rmb8.77, Rmb4.05, Rmb6.58, and Rmb9.44, or falling 28.23%, 25.23%, 23.25%, and 12.76% YoY.
3）每噸煤炭的成本下降。2023年，每噸原煤的總成本同比下降22.82元人民幣，跌幅7.14％，至296.59元人民幣，其中安全生產費用同比增長11.79元或52.45％，材料費用、維護和維修費用、外包業務費用以及相關稅收和附加費下降8.77元、4.05元、6.58元和9.44元，下降28.23％，25.23％，23.25％，同比增長12.76％。
4) In 2023, gross profit of self-produced coal fell Rmb10.43bn YoY and per-tonne gross margin of self-produced coal dropped 19% YoY to Rmb377.
4) 2023年，自產煤炭的毛利同比下降104.3億元人民幣，自產煤炭的每噸毛利率同比下降19％，至377元人民幣。
5) Investment income fell 83.04% YoY to Rmb2.47bn in 2023, mainly due to the increase in investment income in 2022 due to changes in accounting standards of Longi Green Energy. Gains from fair value changes rose Rmb563mn YoY to -Rmb4.60bn, mainly due to lower gains and losses from fair value changes of trust assets. As of end- 2023, the financial assets measured at fair value stood at about Rmb18.5bn, including Rmb7.92bn from private equity funds and Rmb7.33bn from stocks.
5) 2023年，投資收益同比下降83.04％，至24.7億元人民幣，這主要是由於隆基綠色能源會計準則的變化導致2022年投資收益的增加。公允價值變動收益同比增長5.63億元人民幣至-46.0億元人民幣，這主要是由於信託資產公允價值變動的損益減少。截至2023年底，按公允價值計量的金融資產約爲185億元人民幣，其中包括來自私募股權基金的人民幣79.2億元和來自股票的73.3億元人民幣。
1Q24 results review:
24 年第一季度業績回顧：
1) Output edged up. In 1Q24, coal output rose 1.49% YoY and 5.06% QoQ to 41.45mn tonnes, and sales volume rose 9.16% YoY but fell 7.94% QoQ to 61.47mn tonnes, with sales volume of self-produced coal up 1.17% YoY and 0.7% QoQ to 40.91mn tonnes.
1) 產量小幅上升。在24年第一季度，煤炭產量同比增長1.49％，環比增長5.06％，至4145萬噸，銷量同比增長9.16％，但環比下降7.94％，至6147萬噸，自產煤炭的銷量同比增長1.17％，環比增長0.7％，至4,091萬噸。
2) Revenue per tonne of coal fell 17.3% YoY but rose 1.1% QoQ in 1Q24, and cost per tonne fell 11.6% YoY but increased 8.4% QoQ.
2）每噸煤炭收入同比下降17.3％，但在24年第一季度環比增長1.1％，每噸煤炭成本同比下降11.6％，但環比增長8.4％。
3) Investment income dropped Rmb176mn YoY to Rmb390mn, income from fair value changes was -Rmb917mn, and unrecognized loss widened Rmb47.72mn QoQ.
3）投資收益同比下降1.76億元人民幣至3.9億元人民幣，公允價值變動收入爲-9.17億元人民幣，未確認虧損環比擴大了人民幣4,772萬元。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Dividend payout is sustainable. The firm plans to distribute a cash dividend of Rmb12.75bn for 2023, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60%, implying a dividend yield of 5.2% based on the current share price. Given the firm's net cash position and ample cash flow, and limited capex (capex in 2024 to be Rmb2.19bn lower than that in 2023), we believe the firm will maintain stable dividend payout.
股息支付是可持續的。該公司計劃在2023年分配127.5億元人民幣的現金股息，將股息支付率維持在60％，這意味着按當前股價計算，股息收益率爲5.2％。鑑於公司的淨現金狀況和充足的現金流以及有限的資本支出（2024年的資本支出將比2023年減少21.9億元人民幣），我們認爲該公司將保持穩定的股息支付。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024e earnings forecast unchanged, but raise our 2025 earnings forecast 5% to Rmb23.9bn due to adjustments in assumptions such as costs of the coal business.The stock is trading at 10.3x 2024e and 10.2x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and raise our TP 3.8% to Rmb27, implying 11.0x 2024e and 10.9x 2025e P/E and offering 7% upside.
我們維持2024e收益預測不變，但由於煤炭業務成本等假設的調整，將2025年的收益預測上調了5％，至239億元人民幣。該股的交易價格爲2024年的10.3倍和2025年的10.2倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級，將目標3.8％上調至27元人民幣，這意味着2024年的市盈率爲11.0倍和2025年的10.9倍，上漲幅度爲7％。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; supply growth beats expectations.
需求復甦令人失望；供應增長超出預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。