VESYNC(2148.HK):1Q24 WAS SLOW BUT END-DEMAND IS HEALTHY
VESYNC(2148.HK):1Q24 WAS SLOW BUT END-DEMAND IS HEALTHY
1Q24 sales growth was slow but net profit should still be strong. Thanks to the healthy sell-out growth and the less-than-one-month Amazon channel inventory, plus the upgrades in products (e.g., Turbo Blaze air fryer, Dual Zone air fryer, the pet-friendly air purifier and vacuum cleaner), orders growth should normalize in the coming quarters, in our view. With an undemanding valuation of 7x FY24E P/E, we maintain BUY with a TP of HK$ 6.79, based on 11x P/E, well supported by 13%/16% sales/NP CAGRs during FY23-26E.
24年第一季度的銷售增長緩慢，但淨利潤應該仍然強勁。我們認爲，由於健康的銷售增長和不到一個月的亞馬遜渠道庫存，再加上產品的升級（例如Turbo Blaze空氣炸鍋、雙區空氣炸鍋、寵物友好型空氣淨化器和吸塵器），未來幾個季度的訂單增長將恢復正常。由於估值爲7倍 FY24E 市盈率不高，根據11倍市盈率，我們維持買入水平，目標價爲6.79港元，在 FY23-26E 期間得到13％/16％的銷售額/淨複合年增長率的良好支持。
Sell-in growth was slow but sell-out growth was healthy in 1Q24. Vesync's gross sales growth increased by only 1% in 1Q24, slightly below our estimates and slowing down from 27% sell-out growth in 3Q23 and 16% sell-in growth in 2H23. The company attributed this to: 1) insufficient supply of hot-selling products and 2) decreases in orders from Amazon (due to their preference to de-stock). By channel, sales from Amazon declined by 7% while sales growth from non-Amazon channels (mostly offline) was at 38%. However, we believe the end-demand is still healthy as the company also announced a 13% increase in sell-out. Moreover, profit margin should have improved, as the level of discounts and promotion was also reduced. Hence, we do expect net profit growth in 1Q24E to still be decent.
24年第一季度的賣出增長緩慢，但拋售增長良好。Vesync的總銷售增長在24年第一季度僅增長了1％，略低於我們的預期，並且與23年第三季度的27％售出增長和23年下半年的16％的賣入增長相比有所放緩。該公司將其歸因於：1）熱銷產品供應不足，2）來自亞馬遜的訂單減少（由於他們傾向於下貨）。按渠道劃分，亞馬遜的銷售額下降了7％，而非亞馬遜渠道（主要是線下）的銷售增長爲38％。但是，我們認爲最終需求仍然良好，因爲該公司還宣佈銷售量增加13％。此外，利潤率本應有所提高，因爲折扣和促銷水平也有所降低。因此，我們確實預計 1Q24E 的淨利潤增長仍然不錯。
FY24E guidance remains intact (we are conservatively positive). Management reiterated its FY24E guidance (20%+ sales growth and 10%+ NP margin) and we are also positive (even though CMBI est. is at 15%+ and 13%+ respectively), because the inventory in the Amazon channel is fairly low, at a less-than-one-month level. We expect the GP margin to be stable at 45%-46% in FY24E (a drop from 46.9% in FY23), as favorable factors like the depreciation of RMB will ease while the freight rate may increase mildly due to Red Sea conflicts. For NP margin, we believe it can be at around 13.5% (from 13.2% in FY23), as the operating leverage will offset the headwind in GP margin and the small increase in A&P expenses.
FY24E 指導方針保持不變（我們保守地持樂觀態度）。管理層重申了其 FY24E 指導方針（銷售增長20％以上，淨利潤率超過10％），我們也持樂觀態度（儘管CMBI的預期值分別爲15％以上和13％以上），因爲亞馬遜渠道的庫存相當低，不到一個月的水平。我們預計，FY24E 的國內生產總值利潤率將穩定在45％-46％（低於23財年的46.9％），這是因爲人民幣貶值等有利因素將有所緩解，而運費可能會因紅海衝突而溫和上漲。我們認爲NP利潤率可能達到13.5％左右（高於23財年的13.2％），因爲運營槓桿率將抵消GP利潤率的不利因素和A＆P支出的小幅增長。
Maintain BUY and fine-tune TP to HK$6.79. Considering the robust growth (13% sales and 16% net profit CAGR during FY23-26E), we believe its current valuation of 7x is still highly attractive. Our TP is based on 11x FY24E P/E (rolled over from 14x FY23E P/E, vs 3-year average of 12x).
維持買入並將目標價微調至6.79港元。考慮到強勁的增長（FY23-26E 期間銷售額爲13％，淨利潤複合年增長率爲16％），我們認爲其目前的7倍估值仍然極具吸引力。我們的目標市盈率基於 11 倍 FY24E 市盈率（從 14 倍 FY23E 市盈率向下滾動，而 3 年平均市盈率爲 12 倍）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。