The company released the 2023 Annual Report & 2024 Quarterly Report:
1) Revenue for the full year of 2023 was 9.365 billion yuan, +3.35% year on year, net profit attributable to mother was 1,284 million yuan, +34.39% year on year, net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 891 million yuan, +0.31% year on year; non-current profit and loss amount was 393 million yuan, of which deferred tax expenses affected amount - 139 million yuan and fair value change income of 143 million yuan.
2) 2024Q1 revenue was 2,088 billion yuan, -4.86% year on year, net profit to mother was 152 million yuan, -33.96% year on year, net profit without return to mother was 169 million yuan, -9.34% year on year. Income tax expenses increased by 48.1 million yuan year on year due to the expiration of the corporate income tax exemption policy, and revenue from fair value changes decreased by 47.61 million yuan year on year.
The main business is progressing steadily, and the gross margin of the textbook teaching aid business has further increased. In 2023, the company's textbook and teaching aid publishing revenue was 2,821 billion yuan, up 7.30% year on year; gross margin was 28.99%, up 1.07 percentage points year on year. The company's achievements in the intensification of education publishing have been outstanding, and its influence in the field of education publishing has increased significantly. The profit of its education society has steadily increased to 286 million yuan, ranking among the top local education publishing houses. In 2023, the company sold 89.4529 million copies of general books, with sales revenue of 1,436 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 18.59%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points over the previous year. The company's ability to control expenses is good. The sales rate/management rate/R&D rate in 2023 is 10.49%/10.41%/0.10%, and the rate has remained relatively stable over the past three years.
The new education business format has been very effective, the operation of digital platforms is improving, and after-school services are steadily expanding. In 2023, the service capacity of the “Guangdong Education Xiangyun Digital Textbook Application Platform” increased steadily, with annual active users exceeding 43 million, an increase of 95.77% over the previous year; the after-school service implemented “one county, one policy” and “one school, one case”, with revenue of nearly 200 million yuan.
Actively give back to long-term development and maintain a high percentage of dividends. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.40 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, for a total of 484 million yuan (tax included), and a dynamic dividend rate of 3.8%. Dividends have increased. The 2020-2022 dividend is 0.31/0.33/0.47 yuan/share (tax included).
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 10.642 billion yuan, 11.908 billion yuan, 13.111 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 952 million yuan, 1,017 million yuan, and 1,168 billion yuan. A buy-A investment rating is given, with a target price of 15.90 yuan for 6 months, corresponding to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 15x in 2024.
Risk warning: the risk of changes in preferential policies for state-owned cultural media companies, the risk that the development of digital publishing will rapidly impact the original competitive pattern, and the risk that new business expansion falls short of expectations.