Hengtong Logistics' (SHSE:603223) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations
Hengtong Logistics' (SHSE:603223) Solid Earnings May Rest On Weak Foundations
The market shrugged off Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603223) solid earnings report. Our analysis showed that there are some concerning factors in the earnings that investors may be cautious of.
市場對亨通物流有限公司不屑一顧。”s(SHSE: 603223)穩健的收益報告。我們的分析表明,收益中存在一些令人擔憂的因素,投資者可能會謹慎行事。
Examining Cashflow Against Hengtong Logistics' Earnings
根據亨通物流的收益研究現金流
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
用於衡量公司將其利潤轉化爲自由現金流(FCF)的效果的一個關鍵財務比率是應計比率。簡而言之,該比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,然後將該數字除以公司在此期間的平均運營資產。你可以將現金流的應計比率視爲 “非FCF利潤率”。
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
因此,當公司的應計比率爲負時,這實際上被認爲是一件好事,但如果其應計比率爲正,則是一件壞事。雖然應計比率高於零並不令人擔憂,但我們確實認爲,當公司的應計比率相對較高時,值得注意。值得注意的是,有一些學術證據表明,總的來說,高應計率對短期利潤來說是個壞兆頭。
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Hengtong Logistics recorded an accrual ratio of 0.21. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of CN¥117.5m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through CN¥320m in the last year. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of CN¥320m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.
在截至2023年12月的十二個月中,恒通物流的應計比率爲0.21。不幸的是,這意味着其自由現金流遠低於其報告的利潤。儘管該公司公佈了1.175億加元的利潤,但從自由現金流來看,它實際上在去年消耗了3.2億元人民幣。在去年自由現金流爲負的背景下,我們想象一些股東可能會懷疑其今年3.2億元人民幣的現金消耗是否表明存在高風險。但是,這還不是要考慮的全部。應計比率至少部分反映了不尋常項目對法定利潤的影響。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Hengtong Logistics.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的實力。點擊此處查看我們對恒通物流的資產負債表分析。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
不尋常的物品如何影響利潤?
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Hengtong Logistics' profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥11m in the last twelve months. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Hengtong Logistics doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
考慮到應計比率,在過去十二個月中,價值1100萬元人民幣的不尋常物品提振了恒通物流的利潤也就不足爲奇了。雖然獲得更高的利潤總是件好事,但來自不尋常物品的巨額捐款有時會抑制我們的熱情。我們統計了全球大多數上市公司的數字,不尋常的物品在自然界中很常見。這正如你所預料的那樣,因爲這些增強被描述爲 “不尋常”。如果亨通物流沒有看到這種貢獻重演,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,我們預計其本年度的利潤將下降。
Our Take On Hengtong Logistics' Profit Performance
我們對亨通物流盈利表現的看法
Hengtong Logistics had a weak accrual ratio, but its profit did receive a boost from unusual items. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Hengtong Logistics' statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Hengtong Logistics and we think they deserve your attention.
亨通物流的應計比率較低,但其利潤確實受到不尋常項目的提振。出於上述原因,我們認爲,敷衍地看一眼亨通物流的法定利潤可能會使其看起來比實際水平要好。考慮到這一點,除非我們對風險有透徹的了解,否則我們不會考慮投資股票。在Simply Wall St,我們發現了亨通物流的1個警告標誌,我們認爲它們值得你關注。
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
在本文中,我們研究了許多可能削弱利潤數字效用的因素,我們對此持謹慎態度。但是,還有很多其他方法可以告知你對公司的看法。有些人認爲高股本回報率是高質量業務的好兆頭。儘管可能需要代表你進行一些研究,但你可能會發現這份免費收集的擁有高股本回報率的公司,或者這份內部人士正在購買的股票清單很有用。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。