CHINA COAL ENERGY(01898.HK):1Q24 RESULTS MISS; UPBEAT ON HIGHQUALITY GROWTH AHEAD
CHINA COAL ENERGY(01898.HK):1Q24 RESULTS MISS; UPBEAT ON HIGHQUALITY GROWTH AHEAD
1Q24 results slightly missed our expectations
24 年第一季度的業績略低於我們的預期
China Coal Energy announced its 1Q24 results: Revenue fell 23.3% YoY to Rmb45.4bn; A-share attributable net profit dropped by 30.5% YoY to Rmb4.97bn or Rmb0.37/sh; and recurring attributable net profit declined by 31.4% YoY to Rmb4.89bn. H-share attributable net profit fell 27.2% YoY to Rmb5.5bn. The firm's 1Q24 earnings slightly missed our expectations, due to higher-than-expected costs and lower investment income.
中煤能源公佈了其24年第一季度業績：收入同比下降23.3％，至人民幣454億元；A股應占淨利潤同比下降30.5％，至49.7億元人民幣或0.37元人民幣；經常性歸屬淨利潤同比下降31.4％，至人民幣48.9億元。H股應占淨利潤同比下降27.2％，至人民幣55億元。由於成本高於預期和投資收益降低，該公司24年第一季度的收益略低於我們的預期。
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Revenue of the coal business dropped by 26.1% YoY to Rmb37.5bn (down Rmb13.26bn YoY). Gross profit fell 23.5% YoY to Rmb10.13bn (down Rmb3.11bn YoY). Specifically, revenue from self-produced coal fell 11.6% YoY to Rmb19.31bn (down Rmb2.54bn YoY); and gross profit dropped by 23.6% YoY to Rmb9.91bn (down Rmb3.06bn YoY).
煤炭業務收入同比下降26.1％，至375億元人民幣（同比下降132.6億元人民幣）。毛利同比下降23.5％，至101.3億元人民幣（同比下降31.1億元人民幣）。具體而言，自產煤炭收入同比下降11.6％，至193.1億元人民幣（同比下降25.4億元人民幣）；毛利同比下降23.6％，至99.1億元人民幣（同比下降30.6億元人民幣）。
Production and sales volume of coal declined. In 1Q24, the firm's commercial coal output dropped by 1.7% YoY and 1.0% QoQ to 32.73mnt. Specifically, production volume of thermal coal and coking coal was 29.92mnt (-1.9% YoY, -2.6% QoQ) and 2.81mnt (+0.7% YoY, +20.1% QoQ). Sales volume of its self-produced coal was 32.31mnt (-0.8% YoY, -5.6% QoQ).
煤炭的產量和銷售量下降。在24年第一季度，該公司的商業煤炭產量同比下降1.7％，環比下降1.0％，至3273萬噸。具體而言，動力煤和煉焦煤的產量爲29.92萬噸（同比下降1.9％，環比下降2.6％）和281萬噸（同比增長0.7％，環比增長20.1％）。其自產煤炭的銷量爲32.31萬噸（同比下降0.8％，環比下降5.6％）。
Prices of self-produced coal declined YoY. In 1Q24, the average price of the firm's self-produced coal was Rmb598/t (-10.9% YoY, -0.2% QoQ). Specifically, the average price of thermal coal dropped by 10.8% YoY and 3.4% QoQ; the average price of coking coal declined by 10.7% YoY but rose 3.5% QoQ.
自產煤炭價格同比下降。在24年第一季度，該公司自產煤炭的平均價格爲人民幣598元/噸（同比下降10.9％，環比下降0.2％）。具體而言，動力煤的平均價格同比下降10.8％，環比下降3.4％；煉焦煤的平均價格同比下降10.7％，但環比上漲3.5％。
Per-tonne cost of coal rose YoY. In 1Q24, the cost of sales per tonne of self-produced coal rose 6.8% YoY to Rmb291 (-15.1% QoQ) in A-share terms. Excluding transportation and port surcharges, the cost of sales per tonne of self-produced coal rose 8.8% YoY to Rmb233 (-17.3% QoQ) in A-share terms. Specifically, per-tonne coal material and labor costs increased by 7.8% and 36.1% YoY to Rmb55.03 and Rmb49.26, due to YoY increase in coal mine stripping volume and driving footage as well as worker salaries.
煤炭的每噸成本同比上漲。在24年第一季度，按A股計算，每噸自產煤炭的銷售成本同比增長6.8％至291元人民幣（環比下降15.1％）。不包括運輸和港口附加費，按A股計算，每噸自產煤炭的銷售成本同比上漲8.8％，至233元人民幣（環比下降17.3％）。具體而言，每噸煤炭材料和勞動力成本同比增長7.8％和36.1％，至人民幣55.03元和49.26元人民幣，這是由於煤礦開採量和行車鏡頭以及工人工資的同比增加。
Revenue from major coal chemicals dropped by 14.6% YoY to Rmb4.74bn in 1Q24, due to lower production and sales volume. Gross profit fell 6.7% YoY to Rmb796mn.
由於產量和銷售量下降，主要煤炭化學品的收入在24年第一季度同比下降14.6％至人民幣47.4億元。毛利同比下降6.7％，至人民幣7.96億元。
Investment income fell 54.8% YoY to Rmb444mn in 1Q24, due to Huajin Coking Coal, in which the firm holds a stake. Corporate filings show that Huajin Coking Coal's Shaqu No.1 mine halted production over December 13, 2023-April 8, 2024, due to a safety accident.
24年第一季度的投資收益同比下降54.8％，至4.44億元人民幣，這要歸因於該公司持有華金焦煤的股份。公司文件顯示，由於安全事故，華津焦煤的沙曲一號礦在2023年12月13日至2024年4月8日期間停止了生產。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
China Coal Energy published an action plan to improve quality, efficiency and return in 2024, calling for reducing costs along the entire industry chain and value chain, improving quality and efficiency, increasing industrial synergies, and stepping up efforts to develop new quality productive forces. It also said that high-quality assets would be injected to the listed company. Looking ahead, we think the firm will maintain high-quality growth. We are upbeat on the growth potential of the company.
中煤能源發佈了2024年提高質量、效率和回報的行動計劃，呼籲降低整個產業鏈和價值鏈的成本，提高質量和效率，增強行業協同效應，並加大發展新的質量生產力的力度。它還表示，將向上市公司注入高質量資產。展望未來，我們認爲公司將保持高質量增長。我們對公司的增長潛力持樂觀態度。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We cut our A-share earnings forecasts by 12% to Rmb17.99bn for 2024 and 12% to Rmb18.36bn for 2025; and cut our H-share earnings forecasts by 12% to Rmb18.77bn for 2024 and 12% to Rmb19.01bn for 2025, to reflect higher cost assumptions and resource taxes. A-shares are trading at 8.3x 2024e and 8.1x 2025e P/E. H-shares are trading at 4.8x 2024e and 4.5x 2025e P/E. Given higher valuations, we maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings and target prices for A-shares and H-shares. Our TP for A-shares implies 9.6x 2024e and 9.4x 2025e P/E, offering 16% upside. Our TP for H-shares implies 5.7x 2024e and 5.3x 2025e P/E, offering 18% upside.
我們將2024年的A股收益預期下調了12％，至179.9億元人民幣，2025年下調了12％至183.6億元人民幣；並將2024年的H股收益預期下調了12％，至187.7億元人民幣，將2025年下調12％至190.1億元人民幣，以反映更高的成本假設和資源稅。A股的市盈率爲2024年的8.3倍，2025年的市盈率爲8.1倍。H股的市盈率爲2024年的4.8倍和2025年的4.5倍。鑑於估值的上升，我們維持A股和H股的跑贏大盤評級和目標價格。我們的A股目標股市盈率爲2024年的9.6倍，2025年市盈率爲9.4倍，上漲幅度爲16％。我們的H股目標股市盈率爲2024年的5.7倍，2025年市盈率爲5.3倍，上漲幅度爲18％。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; supply growth beats expectations.
需求復甦令人失望；供應增長超出預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。