The company released its 2023 annual report: 2023/2023Q4. Jiayou International achieved operating income of 69.95/1,894 billion yuan, +44.85/ +85.45% year on year; net profit to mother of 10.39/ 284 million yuan, +52.60/ +32.89% year on year. Benefiting from the steady increase in Mongolia's coking coal imports and the commissioning of the Casa project in Africa contributed to the performance, the company's performance in 2023 was outstanding. Looking forward to the future, the company's cross-border logistics model at port nodes in landlocked countries continues to strengthen, and growth is expected. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 12.20/14.40/1,617 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining the company's purchase rating.
Key points to support ratings
Benefiting from steady growth in the Mongolian and African markets in 2023, the company's performance was outstanding. In 2023, the company's revenue was 6.995 billion yuan, +44.85% year over year; net profit to mother was 1,039 million yuan, +52.60% year over year; net profit after deduction was 1,025 billion yuan, +52.40% year over year. In terms of a single quarter, 2023Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 revenue was 15.84/12.24.22.93/1,894 billion yuan, +143.55%/+6.96%/+13.90%/+85.45%, net profit to mother 2.02/3.01/2.54 billion yuan, +87.07%/+63.03%/+44.29%/+32.89% YoY. Thanks to the steady increase in coal imports from Mongolia, the entry into operation of the African Casa project contributed to incremental performance, and the performance in 2023 was outstanding.
Increased imports of Mongolian coal drove a sharp increase in revenue, and gross margin declined due to increased transportation costs. According to data disclosed in the company's 2023 annual report, Ganqimaodu Port completed a total import and export cargo volume of 378.567 million tons in 2023, an increase of 98.54% over the previous year; of these, 365.12,200 tons of imported coal were imported, up 102.37% year on year.
Supported by the above factors, the company's supply chain trade business increased significantly. In 2023, the main coking coal business revenue between China and Mongolia using supply chain trade as a statistical caliber was 4.431 billion yuan, an increase of 145.89% over the previous year. Affected by rising transportation costs and procurement costs, the gross margin of the company's supply chain trade business fell from 14.21% in 2022 to 11.78% in 2023.
The operating revenue of international dry ports increased by 322% year on year, and the coverage area of international multimodal transport increased steadily in 2023. The Kassa project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in Africa officially entered the operation stage. The international dry port business revenue was 425 million yuan, an increase of 322% year on year, forming the company's new business increase, and the inland port node business model was gradually verified. The company promoted international multimodal transport business in North America, Australia, Serbia, Argentina, Chile and other regions. The business achieved a 33.88% increase in gross profit over the same period last year.
valuations
The company's 2023 performance exceeded our expectations. Based on this, we raised the company's profit forecast. We expect the company's net profit to be 12.20/14.40/16.17 billion yuan in 2024-2026, respectively, +17.4%/+18.1%/+12.3%, and EPS 1.75/2.06/2.31 yuan/share, corresponding to PE 15.2/12.9/11.5 times, respectively, to maintain the purchase rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
Global geopolitical risk, risk of loss of major customers and default, risk of project progress falling short of expectations, etc.