CIMC ENRIC(3899.HK):MIXED PERFORMANCE IN 1Q24
CIMC ENRIC(3899.HK):MIXED PERFORMANCE IN 1Q24
Mixed performance in 1Q24
24 年第一季度的表現好壞參半
Enric's turnover slipped 7% YoY to RMB4.6bn in 1Q24 mainly on the weak performance of the chemical and environmental segment. On the positive front, the strong momentum of new orders continued with the value of new orders signed surging 36% YoY over the same period. Clean energy segment was again the best performer. We believe Enric will see decent earnings growth in the coming few years with the green transition of marine fuel as the near-term driver and the contributions from JVs with steel mills being the medium-term driver. Although we trim our 2024-26 earnings forecasts by 2-4%, we reiterate our BUY call with target price reduced to HK$8.86.
安瑞科的營業額在24年第一季度同比下降7％，至46億元人民幣，這主要是由於化學和環境板塊表現疲軟。從積極的方面來看，新訂單的強勁勢頭仍在繼續，同期新簽訂的訂單價值同比激增36％。清潔能源板塊再次表現最好。我們相信，在未來幾年中，Enric將實現可觀的收益增長，船用燃料的綠色轉型是短期驅動力，與鋼廠合資企業的貢獻是中期驅動力。儘管我們將2024-26年的盈利預期下調了2-4％，但我們重申了買入看漲期權，目標價下調至8.86港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Turnover of the clean energy segment grew 21% YoY to RMB3,255m in 1Q24, mainly on the strong growth in offshore products and LNG on-truck cylinders. Revenue of the latter jumped 15x YoY to about RMB250m as the domestic sales of LNG trucks jumped 1.35x YoY amid lower gas price.
清潔能源板塊的營業額在24年第一季度同比增長21％，達到32.55億元人民幣，這主要是由於海上產品和液化天然氣車載氣瓶的強勁增長。由於天然氣價格下跌，液化天然氣卡車的國內銷售同比增長1.35倍，後者的收入同比增長了15倍，達到約2.5億元人民幣。
However, it was more than offset by the declines in revenue at the other two segments. The revenue of chemical and environmental segment plummeted 59% YoY on lower demand. The turnover of liquid food segment dropped 12% YoY on the delay of two turnkey brewery projects as instructed by clients.
但是，其他兩個細分市場收入的下降足以抵消這一點。由於需求減少，化工和環境板塊的收入同比下降了59％。根據客戶的指示，由於兩個交鑰匙啤酒廠項目延期，液態食品板塊的營業額同比下降了12％。
The value of the company's new orders signed surged 36% YoY to RMB7.5bn in 1Q24. Clean energy segment was again the star performer with new order value doubled to RMB6.2bn. In which, offshore products and LNG on-truck cylinders accounted for RMB3bn and RMB350m (up 9x YoY) respectively.
該公司簽署的新訂單價值在24年第一季度同比激增36％至75億元人民幣。清潔能源板塊再次成爲表現最好的板塊，新訂單額翻了一番，達到62億元人民幣。其中，海上產品和車載液化天然氣瓶分別占人民幣30億元和3.5億元人民幣（同比增長9倍）。
While the value of new orders of the other two segments both dropped, the 13% QoQ growth of the chemical and environmental segment could be an early sign of recovery.
儘管其他兩個細分市場的新訂單價值均有所下降，但化工和環境板塊環比增長13％可能是復甦的早期跡象。
Its order backlog at end-1Q24 surged 42% YoY to RMB26.9bn. The strong order backlog provides a solid foundation for the growth ahead.
其在第二季度末的訂單積壓同比增長42％，至269億元人民幣。強勁的訂單積壓爲未來的增長提供了堅實的基礎。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Worse-than-expected falls in profit of the chemical and environmental segment.
化學和環境板塊的利潤下降幅度低於預期。
Liquid food segment fails to live up with our forecast.
液態食品細分市場未能達到我們的預測。
Valuation
估價
We lower our target price from HK$9.81 to HK$8.86 after the trim in our earnings forecasts. We still set our target valuation at 0.9x 2024-26E PEG and the 2024- 26E EPS CAGR decelerates from 16.1% to 15.2% under our new forecast.
在下調收益預測後，我們將目標價格從9.81港元下調至8.86港元。根據我們的新預測，我們仍將目標估值定爲2024-26E的0.9倍，2024-26年的每股收益複合年增長率從16.1％減速至15.2％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。