GREAT WALL MOTOR(2333.HK):1Q24 NP BEAT PROVIDES ROOM FOR TRANSFORMATION
GREAT WALL MOTOR(2333.HK):1Q24 NP BEAT PROVIDES ROOM FOR TRANSFORMATION
Maintain BUY. Great Wall's 1Q24 net profit of RMB3.2bn beat investors' prior forecast, which has increased our confidence in its profitability in FY24E. We raise our FY24E net profit forecast by 25% to RMB9.9bn. We believe Great Wall still needs a high-volume NEV in the mainstream market to boost investors' confidence in its electrification transformation.
維持買入。長城24年第一季度淨利潤爲32億元人民幣，超過了投資者先前的預期，這增強了我們對其在 FY24E 中的盈利能力的信心。我們將我們的 FY24E 淨利潤預期提高了25％，至99億元人民幣。我們認爲，長城仍需要主流市場的大批量新能源汽車，以增強投資者對其電氣化轉型的信心。
1Q24 earnings beat. Great Wall's 1Q24 revenue was 8% higher than our prior forecast thanks to higher-than-expected ASP. Its 1Q24 GPM of 20% was higher than our prior forecast by 1.4ppts despite wider discounts in China, partially driven by higher-than-expected contribution from exports. Other income of RMB1.1bn in 1Q24 was about RMB900mn higher than our prior forecast, due to the excess VAT deduction and tax rebates from overseas, which is partially recurring (50-70% according to management). Great Wall's 1Q24 net profit excluding extraordinary items of RMB2bn beat our prior estimates by about RMB400mn.
24年第一季度的收益超過預期。由於ASP高於預期，長城24年第一季度的收入比我們之前的預測高出8％。儘管中國的折扣幅度更大，但其24年第一季度GPM仍爲20％，比我們先前的預測高出1.4個百分點，部分原因是出口貢獻高於預期。24年第一季度11億元人民幣的其他收入比我們先前的預測高出約9億元人民幣，這是由於海外增值稅減免和部分經常性退稅（據管理層稱 50-70%）。長城24年第一季度淨利潤不計特殊項目20億元人民幣，比我們先前的估計高出約4億元人民幣。
FY24E earnings forecast. We maintain our FY24E sales volume forecast of 1.35mn units (+10% YoY), but raise ASP forecast by 3%. We revise up our FY24E GPM forecast by 0.3ppt to 18.9% given the 1Q24 GPM beat. We also lift our other income forecast from RMB900mn to RMB2.5bn for FY24E, as the 5% excess VAT deduction is applicable until 2027. Accordingly, we raise FY24E net profit forecast by 25% to RMB9.9bn, up 41% YoY.
FY24E 收益預測。我們維持了135萬輛（同比增長10％）的 FY24E 銷量預測，但將ASP預測提高了3％。鑑於24年第一季度的GPM超過預期，我們將對FY24E GPM的預測上調了0.3個百分點至18.9％。我們還將我們對 FY24E 的其他收入預測從9億元人民幣上調至25億元人民幣，因爲5％的增值稅超額扣除適用於2027年。因此，我們將FY24E 淨利潤預測提高了25％，至99億元人民幣，同比增長41％。
Still need a high-volume NEV to boost investors' confidence in Great Wall's long-term development. Despite Great Wall's success in the off- road style SUVs and good earnings contribution from overseas market, it still lacks a competitive NEV to prove its capabilities in electrification and intelligence following the failure of Wey Lanshan PHEV and Haval Xiaolong Max PHEV last year, in our view. As the company is scheduled to introduce more BEVs from FY25E, PHEVs should still be the key for this year. The company plans to roll out a lower-priced PHEV (vs. Xiaolong), which could be a new sales driver. We are also of the view that pricing for the new Wey Lanshan AD version could be important.
仍然需要大批量的新能源汽車來增強投資者對長城長期發展的信心。我們認爲，儘管長城在越野式SUV方面取得了成功，而且海外市場的收益貢獻良好，但在我們看來，繼去年Wey Lanshan PHEV和哈弗小龍Max PHEV失敗之後，它仍然缺乏具有競爭力的新能源汽車來證明其在電氣化和智能化方面的能力。由於該公司計劃從 FY25E 中推出更多電動汽車，因此插電式混合動力汽車仍應是今年的關鍵。該公司計劃推出價格較低的插電式混合動力汽車（與小龍相比），這可能會成爲新的銷售推動力。我們還認爲，新的Wey Lanshan AD版本的定價可能很重要。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating and raise target price from HK$13.00 to HK$14.00, based on 11x (prior 13x) our revised FY24E EPS to reflect China's stiff competition. Investors could keep an eye on the Beijing Auto Show from 25 Apr. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and margins, especially for NEVs, slower tech transformation than we expect, and sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們維持買入評級，並將目標價格從13.00港元上調至14.00港元，這是基於我們修訂後的 FY24E 每股收益的11倍（之前的13倍），以反映中國的激烈競爭。投資者可以從4月25日開始關注北京車展。我們的評級和目標價格的主要風險包括銷量和利潤率下降，尤其是新能源汽車的銷量和利潤率下降，技術轉型低於我們的預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。