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Shoe Carnival's (NASDAQ:SCVL) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the Solid Shareholder Returns

Shoe Carnival's (NASDAQ:SCVL) Five-year Earnings Growth Trails the Solid Shareholder Returns

Shoe Carnival(納斯達克股票代碼:SCVL)的五年收益增長落後於股東的強勁回報
Simply Wall St ·  04/24 19:09

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Shoe Carnival share price has climbed 98% in five years, easily topping the market return of 67% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 55% , including dividends .

當我們投資時,我們通常是在尋找表現超過市場平均水平的股票。收購被低估的企業是獲得超額回報的一種途徑。換句話說,鞋業嘉年華的股價在五年內上漲了98%,輕鬆超過了67%的市場回報率(不計股息)。另一方面,最近的漲幅並不那麼令人印象深刻,股東僅增長了55%,包括股息。

Since the stock has added US$71m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

由於該股僅在過去一週的市值就增加了7100萬美元,因此讓我們看看基礎表現是否推動了長期回報。

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的業務表現。考慮市場對公司的看法發生了怎樣的變化的一種不完美但簡單的方法是將每股收益(EPS)的變化與股價走勢進行比較。

During five years of share price growth, Shoe Carnival achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 17% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 15% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

在五年的股價增長中,Shoe Carnival實現了每年17%的複合每股收益(EPS)增長。每股收益的增長相當接近股價平均年增長15%。因此,人們可以得出結論,對股票的情緒並沒有太大變化。相反,股價大致追蹤了每股收益的增長。

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

下圖顯示了 EPS 在一段時間內的跟蹤情況(如果你點擊圖片,你可以看到更多細節)。

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:SCVL Earnings Per Share Growth April 24th 2024
納斯達克GS:SCVL 每股收益增長 2024 年 4 月 24 日

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。即便如此,未來的收益對於當前股東能否賺錢要重要得多。在買入或賣出股票之前,我們始終建議仔細研究歷史增長趨勢,可在此處查閱。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Shoe Carnival's TSR for the last 5 years was 112%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮兩者之間的區別 股東總回報 (TSR) 和 股價回報。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。碰巧的是,鞋業嘉年華過去5年的股東總回報率爲112%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。這在很大程度上是其股息支付的結果!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

We're pleased to report that Shoe Carnival shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 55% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Shoe Carnival that you should be aware of.

我們很高興地向大家報告,鞋業嘉年華的股東在一年內獲得了55%的總股東回報率。當然,這包括股息。由於一年期股東總回報率好於五年期股東總回報率(後者爲每年16%),因此該股的表現似乎在最近有所改善。持樂觀態度的人可能會將最近股東總回報率的改善視爲業務本身隨着時間的推移而變得更好。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,我們已經確定了鞋業嘉年華的1個警告標誌,你應該注意。

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

還有很多其他公司有內部人士購買股票。你可能不想錯過這份業內人士正在收購的成長型公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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