Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report on March 22, 2024: annual revenue of 18.727 billion yuan, up 7.16% year on year; realized net profit of 525 million yuan, down 14.35% year on year; realized net profit after deduction of 413 million yuan, down 24.15% year on year.
Comment:
The decline in the company's performance was mainly dragged down by civilian products. The main reason for the decline in net profit due to the increase in the company's revenue scale in 2023 was the loss of 197 million yuan for aerospace electricians, which was mainly affected by factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in the external environment, etc., as well as asset impairment preparations and credit asset losses. Excluding aerospace electricians, the company achieved revenue of 14.675 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 15.81% over the previous year, and net profit to mother of 723 million yuan, an increase of 32.66% over the previous year. The company's gross margin/net margin in 2023 was 20.32%/3.15%, respectively, +0.7/-0.6 percentage points year on year; sales/management/finance rates were 1.99%/7.43%/0.9%, respectively, +0.17/+0.62/-0.38 percentage points year on year, respectively.
The electronic information business is developing steadily, and the drone business is progressing well. In terms of aerospace electronic information products, the company maintains a leading domestic level and maintains a high supporting ratio, accounting for about 70% of the company's current revenue. The product gross margin is relatively high, which is the main source of the company's net profit. In terms of unmanned systems equipment, several models of Aerospace Feihong's unmanned systems successfully won bids to fill the gaps in model equipment in the composite wing field, and continuous breakthroughs have been made in overseas markets. Aerospace Feihong's medium-range multi-purpose drone systems and small-diameter guided munitions have received international business orders.
Further focus on the main business and transfer 51% of Aerospace Electrician's shares. The company announced that it plans to transfer no less than 51% of the shares of its wholly-owned subsidiary Aerospace Electric. After the equity transfer is completed, the company holds 49% of Aerospace Electrician's shares. Aerospace Electric will change from a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company to a company participating in the company, and the company will no longer have a consolidated statement on Aerospace Electrician. There is a big difference between aerospace electrical engineering and the company's other businesses in terms of scientific research and production models, user markets, etc. Through this equity transfer and no consolidated statements, it will help the company optimize and adjust the industrial structure and internal resource integration, and focus more on the main business.
Investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 203.76/221.76/24.145 billion yuan, respectively, net profit to mother of 7.56/8.8 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.23/0.27/0.3 yuan, corresponding to PE34.54/29.38/26.73X, covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: orders fall short of expectations, profit forecasts and valuations fall short of expectations