2023Q4's revenue recovered significantly, with a significant year-on-month increase in performance, maintaining the “buy” rating. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 5.41 billion yuan, +0.12%; net profit to mother of 924 million yuan, -12.85% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 704 million yuan, -28.22% year over year; gross profit margin of 30.26%, -6.03 pcts year on year.
2023Q4 achieved revenue of 1,369 million yuan in a single quarter, +38.92% YoY, -3.3%; net profit to mother of 306 million yuan, +130.95% YoY, +47.71% month-on-month; net profit after deduction of 90 million yuan, -26.02% YoY, -55.51% month-on-month; gross profit margin of 28.46%, -8.67pcts YoY and -3.82pcts month-on-month. Considering factors such as the short-term recovery of the industry falling short of expectations, we lowered the company's 2024-2025 net profit forecast to 1.08/1,360 billion yuan (previous value was 12.21/1,513 billion yuan) and added the 2026 profit forecast of 1,668 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 1.87/2.50/3.07 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding PE is 19.2/14.4/11.7 times. We are optimistic about the increase in performance brought about by the company's continuous expansion in three and a half generations, automotive electronics, etc., to maintain the “buy” rating.
The downstream field continues to expand, focusing on automotive electronics+three and a half generations. From a downstream perspective, the company focuses on key fields such as industrial control and photovoltaic inverters. In 2023, the company's market share in IGBT modules increased rapidly, gradually becoming an important player integrating chip design and module packaging. Among them, the company's NEV PTC has passed vehicle regulation certification and delivered to customers in large quantities. It has successfully developed 1200V/160A, 650V/400A and 450A three-level IGBT modules and put them on the market in the photovoltaic field. The product number has gradually been improved, and growth momentum is sufficient; in terms of three and a half generations, the company has continued to increase research and development efforts in SiC and GaN power devices, and has developed and launched G1 and G2 series SiC MOS products. The models cover 650V/1200V/1700V and achieve Batch shipments. Among them, the performance of 1200V platform products can be compared to international standards, and competitiveness is constantly improving. In addition, the company's automotive SiC modules have been developed, and have now been tested and cooperated by a number of Tier1 and terminal car companies, and it is planned to complete batch launch of nationally produced main-drive silicon carbide modules in 2025. In terms of automotive electronics, 40V SGT MOSFET chips for 8- and 12-inch G2 platforms for motor drive applications such as automotive EPS, BCM, and oil pumps have successfully passed vehicle reliability verification, and some customer tests have passed and entered the batch stage. In addition, the N60V/N100V/N150V/P100V has completed the development of automotive-grade chips, and mass production of various products for automotive DC-DC and wireless charging applications has been completed, and is expected to be released in the future.
Risk warning: downstream demand falls short of expectations; customer introduction falls short of expectations; technology research and development falls short of expectations.