POP MART INTERNATIONAL(9992.HK):UPBEAT 1Q24 PERFORMANCE ON SOARING OVERSEAS SUCCESS
POP MART INTERNATIONAL(9992.HK):UPBEAT 1Q24 PERFORMANCE ON SOARING OVERSEAS SUCCESS
Pop Mart has released its unaudited 1Q24 business performance which exceeded market expectations. While domestic revenue recorded resilient growth, overseas revenue surged by 245-250% YoY, which should be a favourable surprise to the market. With increasing number and booming sales of overseas retail stores, Pop Mart has demonstrated its appeal to local consumers. Additionally, we believe Pop Mart is effectively diversifying its product categories to reduce reliance on blind box, given the strong performance of stuffed toys and the forthcoming release of toy bricks in June. We revised up our target price to HK$39.6 and maintain BUY.
Pop Mart公佈了其未經審計的24年第一季度業務業績，超出了市場預期。雖然國內收入實現了彈性增長，但海外收入同比激增了245-250％，這應該會讓市場感到意外。隨着海外零售商店數量的增加和銷售的蓬勃發展，Pop Mart已向當地消費者展示了其吸引力。此外，我們認爲，鑑於毛絨玩具的強勁表現以及即將在6月發佈的玩具積木，Pop Mart正在有效地實現其產品類別的多元化，以減少對盲盒的依賴。我們將目標價上調至39.6港元並維持買入。
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Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Decent growth recorded across channels and markets. Pop Mart reported 40-45% YoY revenue growth in 1Q24, sustaining its momentum in 2H23 (+54% YoY), largely driven by expeditious development of overseas segment (+245-250% YoY). In Mainland China, revenue generated from retail stores and roboshops elevated by 20-25% and 15-20% YoY respectively, indicating that the new product collections, such as Skullpanda: image of reality and Dimoo: animal kingdom, were well received by customers. Pop Draw, which accounted for 43% of domestic online sales in 2023, resumed growth at 0-5% YoY in 1Q24, following a retreat of 25% YoY in 2023. Sales on e-commerce platforms also maintained steady growth of 20-25% YoY in 1Q24, with Douyin continuing to outperform the others. Furthermore, wholesales and other channels climbed 50-55% YoY in 1Q24 revenue.
各渠道和市場均實現了不錯的增長。Pop Mart報告稱，24年第一季度收入同比增長40-45％，保持了23年下半年的勢頭（同比增長54％），這主要是由海外細分市場的快速發展（同比增長245-250％）推動的。在中國大陸，零售商店和機器人商店產生的收入分別同比增長20-25％和15-20％，這表明新產品系列，例如Skullpanda：現實的形象和Dimoo：動物王國，受到客戶的好評。Pop Draw在2023年佔國內在線銷售額的43％，繼2023年同比下降25％之後，在24年第一季度恢復了0-5％的同比增長。電子商務平台的銷售額在24年第一季度也保持了同比20-25％的穩定增長，抖音的表現繼續優於其他平台。此外，批發和其他渠道在24年第一季度的收入同比增長了50-55％。
Overseas expansion progressed smoothly. On 9 Feb, Pop Mart unveiled its third retail store in Bangkok, Thailand and witnessed retail sales value of RMB5m on the opening day, setting a new record among all Pop Mart's retail stores globally. The company further expanded its footprint in Southeast Asia with the launch of two retail stores in Vietnam in March. As the international sales volume continues to escalate, we expect the company to progressively increase local sourcing to mitigate pressure on shipping costs. We believe the company is well on track to achieve international store count of 130-140 by the end of 2024 and anticipate overseas segment to contribute 27% of group revenue in 2024.
海外擴張進展順利。2月9日，Pop Mart在泰國曼谷推出了其第三家零售店，開業當天的零售額爲人民幣500萬元，創下了Pop Mart全球所有零售門店的新紀錄。該公司於3月在越南開設了兩家零售店，進一步擴大了其在東南亞的足跡。隨着國際銷量的持續增長，我們預計該公司將逐步增加本地採購，以減輕運輸成本的壓力。我們認爲，該公司有望在2024年底之前實現130-140家的國際門店數量，並預計海外分部將在2024年貢獻集團收入的27％。
Product diversification to enhance revenue growth certainty. We expect the imminent highlight for Pop Mart will be the toy bricks scheduled for June. After gradually enriching product categories, the company has reduced its reliance on blind boxes and thereby gained additional growth drivers. This should also increase users' stickiness while reducing risks related to blind boxes.
產品多元化以提高收入增長的確定性。我們預計，Pop Mart即將到來的亮點將是定於6月推出的玩具積木。在逐步豐富產品類別之後，該公司減少了對盲盒的依賴，從而獲得了額外的增長動力。這也應該增加用戶的粘性，同時降低與盲盒相關的風險。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: (i) fierce competition and change in consumer preference; (ii) deteriorated brand equity; (iii) inability to secure popular IPs; (iv) regulatory uncertainty; (v) overseas expansion uncertainty; and (vi) commodity inflation.
下行風險：（i）激烈的競爭和消費者偏好的變化；（ii）品牌資產惡化；（iii）無法獲得受歡迎的知識產權；（iv）監管的不確定性；（v）海外擴張的不確定性；（vi）大宗商品通脹。
Valuation
估價
We revised up our 2024/25/26E core net profit forecasts by 7.5/8.4/8.2%, mainly to factor in rosy overseas performance. We derived our new TP of HK$39.6, based on 30x 2024E P/E (previous: 25x). We believe Pop Mart could enjoy a higher multiple as its accelerated overseas revenue growth wiped out investors' concern regarding the sustainability of overseas expansion.
我們將2024/25/26E的核心淨利潤預測上調了7.5/8.4/ 8.2％，這主要是考慮到樂觀的海外表現。我們根據2024年的30倍市盈率（先前爲25倍）得出新的目標價爲39.6港元。我們認爲，Pop Mart可以享受更高的倍數，因爲其加速的海外收入增長消除了投資者對海外擴張可持續性的擔憂。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。