HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(01882.HK):DOMESTIC DEMAND RECOVERING WITH POLICY STIMULUS "ACCUMULATE"
HAITIAN INTERNATIONAL(01882.HK):DOMESTIC DEMAND RECOVERING WITH POLICY STIMULUS "ACCUMULATE"
We maintain "Accumulate", and increase TP to HK$26.65. China is expected to focus more on the manufacturing sector with supportive policies. We maintain our Haitian International (the "Company") 2024-2026 shareholders' net profit forecasts at RMB2,761 mn / RMB2,984 mn / RMB3,222 mn, respectively. We forecast the Company's earnings per share in 2023/ 2024/ 2025 to be RMB1.730, RMB1.870, and RMB2.019, respectively. Monetary policy is expected to further ease in 2024 thereby increasing valuation ratios. Our TP represents 13.6x/ 12.5x/ 11.6x 2024-2026 PE ratio and 1.8x 2024 PB ratio.
我們維持 “累積”，並將目標價提高至26.65港元。預計中國將通過支持性政策更多地關注製造業。我們將海天國際（“公司”）2024-2026年股東的淨利潤預測維持在人民幣27.61億元/人民幣29.84億元/人民幣32.22億元。我們預計該公司在2023/2024/ 2025年的每股收益將分別爲人民幣1.730元、人民幣1.870元和人民幣2.019元。預計貨幣政策將在2024年進一步放鬆，從而提高估值比率。我們的目標股市盈率爲2024-2026年的13.6倍/12.5倍/11.6倍，2024年的市盈率爲1.8倍。
The Company's FY23 results were slightly stronger than our expectations. The Company's revenue in FY23 was RMB13.1 billion, an increase of 6.2% YoY, stronger than our expectations. Despite less than favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, demand in overseas markets has increased under the influence of structural change in the global industrial chain. Sales increased notably in certain regions of Europe, North America and Southeast Asia. The Company recorded overseas sales of RMB5.2 billion, an increase of 17.3% YoY.
該公司的23財年業績略強於我們的預期。該公司在23財年的收入爲人民幣131億元，同比增長6.2％，強於我們的預期。儘管國內宏觀經濟條件不太有利，但在全球產業鏈結構變化的影響下，海外市場的需求有所增加。歐洲、北美和東南亞某些地區的銷售額顯著增長。該公司的海外銷售額爲人民幣52億元，同比增長17.3％。
The Company's net margin improved slightly. The Company's net profit margin in FY2023 increased by 0.7 ppt YoY to 19.1%. This profit margin increase over the previous year was due to 1) Cost of sales decreasing due to lower raw material prices. 2) A temporary increase in finance income due to an increase in restricted bank deposits and more favorable currency fluctuations.
該公司的淨利潤率略有提高。該公司在 FY2023 中的淨利潤率同比增長0.7個百分點至19.1％。與上年相比，利潤率的增長是由於1）由於原材料價格下跌導致銷售成本下降。2）由於限制性銀行存款的增加和更有利的貨幣波動，財務收入暫時增加。
Domestic demand set to recover with policy driven growth. We anticipate that the government will persist in boosting domestic demand and continue with supply-side reforms, propelling China's economic restructuring. This will be achieved through strategies focused on high-quality and advanced manufacturing, improving industrial layout, and encouraging open international cooperation. Moreover, policies that promote the renewal and trade-in of large-scale equipment and consumer goods are poised to increase demand within the company's downstream industries and motivate consumers to upgrade their equipment. We expect these comprehensive growth-stabilizing measures to hasten the recovery of the domestic economy as they are rolled out and executed.
隨着政策驅動的增長，國內需求將復甦。我們預計，政府將堅持提振國內需求，繼續進行供給側改革，推動中國的經濟結構調整。這將通過以高質量和先進製造業爲重點、改善產業佈局和鼓勵開放的國際合作的戰略來實現。此外，促進大型設備和消費品更新和以舊換新的政策有望增加公司下游行業的需求，並激勵消費者升級設備。我們預計，這些全面的穩定增長措施將在推出和執行時加快國內經濟的復甦。
Catalysts: Domestic demand recovery; Stronger than expected domestic industrial policy.
催化劑：國內需求復甦；國內產業政策強於預期。
Risk factors: Domestic recovery may be less than expected; Potential international policy risk.
風險因素：國內復甦可能低於預期；潛在的國際政策風險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。