CMGE Technology (302 HK): Eyes on strong pipeline ahead
CMGE Technology (302 HK): Eyes on strong pipeline ahead
CMGE delivered soft top line and profitability in FY23 for declining game grossing from existing games and rescheduling of several key titles. We suggest looking to revenue acceleration and margin recovery in FY24E (forecast top line +32% YoY, with adj. NM at 11%), boosted by: 1) a strong pipeline in FY24E, including Soul Land: Space and Time Reversal (斗罗大陆：逆转时空), Fights Break Firmament: Peak Confrontation (斗破苍穹：巅峰对决) and Sword and Fair World (仙剑世界); 2) rising contribution from mini-games; and 3) continued overseas expansion. CMGE would pursue a ROI-driven R&D and S&M strategy ahead, to enhance its margin. We trim our earnings forecast by 25%-28% in FY24-25E, with a DCF-based TP at HK$2.9.
由於現有遊戲的遊戲收入下降以及幾款關鍵遊戲的重新安排，CMGE在23財年實現了營收和盈利能力疲軟。我們建議考慮 FY24E 的收入加速和利潤回升（經調整後，預計收入同比增長32％）。新墨西哥州爲11％），這得益於：1) FY24E 的強勁陣容，包括《靈魂之地：時空逆轉》（斗羅大陸：逆轉時空）、Fights Break Firmament：巔峯對抗（鬥破壞：劍對決）和《劍與公平世界》（仙劍世界）；2）小遊戲的貢獻不斷增加；3）持續的海外擴張。CMGE將在未來推行以投資回報率爲導向的研發和S&M戰略，以提高利潤率。我們將在 FY24-25E 中的收益預測下調了25％-28％，基於DCF的目標爲2.9港元。
Looking beyond FY23 with moderate profitability.
展望23財年以後，盈利能力適中。
CMGE rev dropped 4% YoY in FY23, 29% below consensus, mainly due to declining game grossing from existing games and rescheduling of several key titles. In 2023, Sword and Fairy: Wen Qing (新仙剑之挥剑问情) and Cultivation Fantasy (我的御剑日记) were officially launched and performed well, but Swallowed Star: Dawn and Ultraman: The Gathering missed expectation. Bottom line achieved breakeven with profit of RMB5mn in FY23, below consensus of RMB292mn. However, we think such results have been well priced in, and we suggest looking at the new games pipeline for FY24E and its shareholder return. CMGE announced a share repurchase plan of up to HK$100mn by the next AGM.
CMGE的收入在23財年同比下降了4％，比預期低29％，這主要是由於現有遊戲的遊戲收入下降以及幾款關鍵遊戲的改期。2023年，《仙劍奇俠：文青》（新仙劍之劍問情）和《修煉幻想》（我的御劍日記）正式上線並表現出色，但是《吞星：黎明》和《奧特曼：聚會》沒有達到預期。利潤在23財年實現盈虧平衡，利潤爲人民幣500萬元，低於市場預期的2.92億元人民幣。但是，我們認爲這樣的業績已經定價合理，我們建議考慮 FY24E 及其股東回報的新遊戲渠道。CMGE在下次股東周年大會之前宣佈了高達1億港元的股票回購計劃。
Eyes on strong pipeline ahead.
將目光投向未來的強勁管道。
We are positive on CMGE’s pipeline in 2024E, and forecast revenue +32% YoY. Soul Land: Shrek College (斗罗大陆：史莱克学院) was launched in Jan 2024, with first-month grossing of over RMB100mn. In 1H24E, we expect two key titles to bring upside, including Soul Land: Space and Time Reversal and Fights Break Firmament: Peak Confrontation. On top of that, we are bullish on mini-games contribution in 2024E, including Country Love: Business Life (乡村爱情之经营人生) and Sword and Fairy: Wen Qing (both have obtained licenses). CMGE will also step up overseas expansion, with multiple titles to be launched in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan of China and Japan (e.g., Sword and Fairy: Wen Qing, Soul Land: Shrek Academy, and Fights Break Firmament: Peak Confrontation). For the bottom line, we expect FY24E adj. net profit at RMB387mn, with adj. net margin up to 11%.
我們對CMGE在2024E的產品線持樂觀態度，並預測收入同比增長32％。靈魂樂園：史萊克學院（斗羅大陸：史萊克學院）於2024年1月成立，首月票房超過1億元人民幣。在 1H24E 中，我們預計兩款關鍵遊戲將帶來上行空間，包括《靈魂之地：時空逆轉》和《格鬥破蒼際：巔峯對抗》。最重要的是，我們看好2024E小遊戲的貢獻，包括《鄉村之戀：商業生活》（country Love：Business Life）（鄉村愛情之經營人生）和《仙劍奇俠：文青》（均已獲得許可）。CMGE還將加強海外擴張，將在中國和日本的香港、澳門和臺灣推出多款遊戲（例如《仙劍奇緣：文青》、《靈魂樂園：史萊克學院》和《鬥破蒼空：巔峯對抗》）。最重要的是，我們預計 FY24E 經調整後的淨利潤爲人民幣3.87億元，經調整後的淨利潤率將高達11％。
Maintain BUY.
維持買入。
We trim our earnings forecast by 25%-28% in FY24-25E to reflect S&M investment and pipeline rescheduling. Our DCF-based TP is adjusted to HK$2.9 (implying 19x/15x FY24/25E P/E).
我們將在 FY24-25E 中的收益預測下調了25％-28％，以反映S＆M投資和管道的重新安排。我們基於差價合約的目標價調整爲2.9港元（這意味着24/25財年的市盈率爲19x/15倍）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。