Are Investors Undervaluing Acushnet Holdings Corp. (NYSE:GOLF) By 24%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Acushnet Holdings Corp. (NYSE:GOLF) By 24%?
Key Insights
- The projected fair value for Acushnet Holdings is US$81.27 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$62.12 suggests Acushnet Holdings is potentially 24% undervalued
- Analyst price target for GOLF is US$70.79 which is 13% below our fair value estimate
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Acushnet Holdings Corp. (NYSE:GOLF) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
The Model
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$285.9m | US$289.0m | US$304.0m | US$304.8m | US$307.5m | US$311.5m | US$316.5m | US$322.3m | US$328.5m | US$335.3m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x5 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 0.28% | Est @ 0.88% | Est @ 1.30% | Est @ 1.60% | Est @ 1.81% | Est @ 1.95% | Est @ 2.05% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | US$266 | US$249 | US$244 | US$227 | US$213 | US$200 | US$189 | US$179 | US$169 | US$160 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.1b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$335m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.3%) = US$6.4b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$6.4b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= US$3.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$5.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$62.1, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Acushnet Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.168. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Acushnet Holdings
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend information for GOLF.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Leisure market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for GOLF?
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Acushnet Holdings, we've compiled three relevant factors you should further examine:
- Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Acushnet Holdings you should know about.
- Future Earnings: How does GOLF's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
關鍵見解
- 根據兩階段股權自由現金流,Acushnet Holdings的預計公允價值爲81.27美元
- 目前的股價爲62.12美元,表明Acushnet Holdings可能被低估了24%
- 分析師對高爾夫的目標股價爲70.79美元,比我們的公允價值估計低13%
今天,我們將簡單介紹一種估值方法,該方法用於預測Acushnet Holdings Corp.(紐約證券交易所代碼:GOLF)未來的現金流,然後將其折現爲今天的價值,從而估計其作爲投資機會的吸引力。在這種情況下,我們將使用折扣現金流(DCF)模型。在你認爲自己無法理解之前,請繼續閱讀!實際上,它沒有你想象的那麼複雜。
公司可以在很多方面得到估值,因此我們要指出,DCF並不適合所有情況。如果您想了解有關折扣現金流的更多信息,可以在Simply Wall St分析模型中詳細了解此計算背後的理由。
該模型
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,這僅意味着公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長期。通常,第一階段是較高的增長階段,第二階段是較低的增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們會使用分析師的估計值,但是當這些估計值不可用時,我們會從最新的估計值或報告的價值中推斷出之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
差價合約就是關於未來一美元的價值低於今天一美元的概念,因此,這些未來現金流的總和將折現爲今天的價值:
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 估計
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF(美元,百萬) | 285.9 億美元 | 2.890 億美元 | 3.04 億美元 | 3.048 億美元 | 3.075 億美元 | 311.5 億美元 | 3.165 億美元 | 3.223 億美元 | 328.5 億美元 | 3.353 億美元 |
增長率估算來源 | 分析師 x5 | 分析師 x4 | 分析師 x1 | Est @ 0.28% | Est @ 0.88% | 東部時間 @ 1.30% | Est @ 1.60% | Est @ 1.81% | 東部標準時間 @ 1.95% | Est @ 2.05% |
現值(美元,百萬)折扣 @ 7.7% | 266 美元 | 249 美元 | 244 美元 | 227 美元 | 213 美元 | 200 美元 | 189 美元 | 179 美元 | 169 美元 | 160 美元 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10年期現金流(PVCF)的現值 = 21億美元
在計算了最初10年期內未來現金流的現值之後,我們需要計算終值,該終值涵蓋了第一階段以後的所有未來現金流。出於多種原因,使用的增長率非常保守,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用10年期國債收益率的5年平均值(2.3%)來估計未來的增長。與10年 “增長” 期一樣,我們使用7.7%的股本成本將未來的現金流折現爲今天的價值。
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 3.35億美元× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.7% — 2.3%) = 64億美元
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= 64億美元÷ (1 + 7.7%)10= 31 億美元
總價值是未來十年的現金流總額加上貼現的終端價值,由此得出總權益價值,在本例中爲51億美元。爲了得出每股內在價值,我們將其除以已發行股票總數。相對於目前的62.1美元的股價,該公司的估值似乎略有低估,與目前股價相比折扣了24%。但是,估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——移動幾度,最終進入另一個星系。請記住這一點。
假設
我們要指出的是,貼現現金流的最重要投入是貼現率,當然還有實際的現金流。投資的一部分是自己對公司未來業績的評估,因此請自己嘗試計算並檢查自己的假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Acushnet Holdings視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了7.7%,這是基於1.168的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Acushnet Holdings 的 SWOT 分析
- 收益和現金流足以彌補債務。
- 股息由收益和現金流支付。
- 高爾夫的股息信息。
- 在過去的一年中,收益有所下降。
- 與休閒市場中前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
- 預計未來三年的年收入將增長。
- 交易價格比我們估計的公允價值低20%以上。
- 預計年收益的增長速度將低於美國市場。
- 分析師對高爾夫還有什麼預測?
後續步驟:
就建立投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究公司時唯一考慮的指標。DCF模型並不是投資估值的萬能藥。相反,它應該被視爲 “需要哪些假設才能低估/高估這隻股票的價值?” 的指南例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化會對估值產生重大影響。爲什麼內在價值高於當前股價?對於Acushnet Holdings,我們整理了三個相關因素,你應該進一步研究:
- 風險:每家公司都有風險,我們發現了兩個你應該知道的Acushnet Holdings警告信號。
- 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,GOLF的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St應用程序每天對紐約證券交易所的每隻股票進行折扣現金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的計算方法,請在此處搜索。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
風險及免責聲明
- 分享到weixin
- 分享到qq
- 分享到facebook
- 分享到twitter
- 分享到微博
- 粘贴板
使用瀏覽器的分享功能,分享給你的好友吧