CHINA TOWER(00788.HK):1QFY23 EARNINGS GROWTH;END OF DEPRECIATION PERIOD TO PROVIDE SPACE FOR DIVIDEND INCREASE "BUY"
CHINA TOWER(00788.HK):1QFY23 EARNINGS GROWTH;END OF DEPRECIATION PERIOD TO PROVIDE SPACE FOR DIVIDEND INCREASE "BUY"
We maintain China Tower's (the "Company") TP at HK$1.20 and the investment rating as "Buy". The depreciation of a large number of towers will expire in 4Q2025, thereby increasing net profit. As such, we do not think the Company will reduce its dividend payout ratio, so we expect the dividend amount to increase significantly in 2026. Thus, we maintain the investment rating as "Buy" and TP at HK$1.20. Our TP corresponds to 16.9x/ 14.3x/ 8.8x FY24-FY26 PER, representing 4.1%/ 5.0%/ 8.1% dividend yield in FY24-FY26.
我們將中國鐵塔（“公司”）的目標價維持在1.20港元，投資評級維持爲 “買入”。大量塔樓的折舊將在 4Q2025 中到期，從而增加淨利潤。因此，我們認爲公司不會降低其股息支付率，因此我們預計2026年的股息金額將大幅增加。因此，我們將投資評級維持在 “買入”，目標價維持在1.20港元。我們的目標股息相當於16.9x/ 14.3x/ 8.8倍的 FY24-FY26 市盈率，相當於 FY24-FY26 的4.1％/5.0％/8.1％的股息收益率。
China Tower recorded solid 1QFY24 results, in line with market expectations. The Company recorded 1QFY24 revenue of RMB23,974 mn (+3.3% yoy) and shareholders' net profit of RMB2,784 mn (+11.1% yoy), in line with market expectations. Due to the rising number of tower sites and tower tenants, revenue of tower business recorded a slight increase in 1Q24. Due to the strong demand for indoor coverage and strong growth of smart tower business, as well as the effective control of operating expenses, we expect the Company to maintain the double-digit percentage net profit growth in 2024.
中國鐵塔錄得穩健的 1QFY24 業績，符合市場預期。該公司錄得 1QFY24 收入爲人民幣239.74億元（同比增長3.3％），股東淨利潤爲人民幣27.84億元（同比增長11.1％），符合市場預期。由於塔樓用地和塔樓租戶數量的增加，塔樓業務的收入在24年第一季度略有增長。由於對室內覆蓋的強勁需求和智能塔業務的強勁增長，以及對運營費用的有效控制，我們預計該公司將在2024年保持兩位數的淨利潤百分比增長。
Depreciation of the existing tower assets acquired in 2015 will expire by 4Q2025, which will provide strong drive for profit growth in 2026. The depreciation occupies an absolutely dominant position in the Company's operating expenses, while the proportion of depreciation and amortization to total revenue in 2023 was 52.2%. Thus the deprecation has a significant impact on the Company's profitability. In Oct. 2015, the Company acquired assets of about RMB203.5 billion from the three major telecom operators, and approximately half of them are tower assets which have a deprecation period of 10 years (these towers can still be used normally, but require repair and maintenance expenditure), while China Tower's self-built tower has a deprecation period of 20 years. In 4Q2025, deprecation on these existing tower assets with a 10-year deprecation period will expire, while China Tower uses straight-line method for deprecation. The deduction in depreciation expense is expected to be far higher than the required repair and maintenance expenditure. Therefore, we expect a significant increase in shareholders' net profit in 2026.
2015 年收購的現有塔樓資產的折舊將在 4Q2025 之前到期，這將爲2026年的利潤增長提供強勁的動力。折舊在公司的運營費用中佔據絕對的主導地位，而折舊和攤銷佔2023年總收入的比例爲52.2％。因此，此次貶值對公司的盈利能力產生了重大影響。2015年10月，公司從三大電信運營商手中收購了約2035億元人民幣的資產，其中約一半是折舊期爲10年的塔樓資產（這些塔樓仍可正常使用，但需要維修和維護支出），而中國鐵塔的自建塔樓的棄用期爲20年。在 4Q2025 中，這些處置期爲 10 年的現有塔樓資產的棄權將到期，而中國鐵塔使用直線法進行棄用。折舊費用的扣除額預計將遠高於所需的維修和保養支出。因此，我們預計2026年股東的淨利潤將大幅增加。
Catalysts: Rising dividend payout; faster-than-expected growth of "Two Wings" business.
催化劑：股息支出增加；“兩翼” 業務增長快於預期。
Risks: Slower-than-expected growth of "Two Wings" business; slower-than-expected 5G construction; the management may choose to lower dividend payout ratio in 2026.
風險：“兩翼” 業務的增長低於預期；5G建設低於預期；管理層可能會選擇在2026年降低股息支付率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。