BOSIDENG(3998.HK):FROM WINTER CLOTHING TO ALL SEASONS CLOTHING
BOSIDENG(3998.HK):FROM WINTER CLOTHING TO ALL SEASONS CLOTHING
We think the guidance raise is a key moment for the company, as the success that Bosdieng has achieved in the sun-protective product series shows that it is capable of generating sales in all seasons (other than just fall and winter). Also, despite our raises in estimates and TP, we still think our numbers are conservative. The company is only trading at 12x FY3/25E P/E and a 7% yield, still fairly attractive in our view.
我們認爲，提高指導水平對公司來說是一個關鍵時刻，因爲Bosdieng在防曬產品系列中取得的成功表明，它能夠在所有季節（秋季和冬季除外）創造銷售。此外，儘管我們提高了估計值和目標值，但我們仍然認爲我們的數字是保守的。該公司的交易市盈率僅爲3/25財年的12倍，收益率爲7％，在我們看來仍然相當有吸引力。
FY3/24E guidance raised, driven by both industry and company reasons. During its new product launch event last week, Bosideng raised its FY24E guidance to 30%+ sales growth and even faster NP growth (from 20%+ in Jan 2024), thanks to macro reasons (CNY was later than last year's and favorable weather since Dec 2023) and various company-specific reasons such as: 1) successful category expansion (e.g., sun-protective achieved 300%+ sales growth to around RMB500mn in FY3/24E), 2) impressive new product launches (e.g. Ultralight down apparel had a surge in sales growth of 70%+ to around RMB3.0bn in FY3/24E, much faster than the guidance of 30%+; the 3-in-1 windbreakers were also extremely hot- selling) and 3) effective boost in store efficiency through the TOP strategy (top 500 stores contributed about 60% of down apparel sales, top 17% SKUs made up around 70% of sales and 180+ stores registered RMB10mn+ in annual sales per store, etc.).
受行業和公司原因的推動，上調了2013/24財年指導方針。在上週的新產品發佈會上，波司登將其 FY24E 預期的銷售增長提高到30％以上，淨利潤增長率甚至更快（從2024年1月的20％以上），這要歸因於宏觀原因（人民幣晚於去年，自2023年12月以來的有利天氣）以及各種公司特定的原因，例如：1）成功擴大品類（例如，防曬產品在3/24財年實現了300％以上的銷售額增長至約5億元人民幣），2) 令人印象深刻的新產品上市（例如，Ultralight羽絨服裝）在3/24財年的銷售額增長了70％以上，達到約30億元人民幣，遠快於預期佔30％以上；三合一防風衣也非常暢銷）；3）通過TOP策略有效地提高了門店效率（前500強門店貢獻了約60％的羽絨服裝銷售額，排名前17％的SKU約佔銷售額的70％，180多家門店的年銷售額超過1,000萬元人民幣等）。
Company is still confident on its rapid growth in FY3/25E and we do think that is feasible. Management is still highly confident about its growth in FY3/25E and even in FY3/26E-27E, and we have conservatively estimated 14% sales growth and 17% net profit growth in FY3/25E. We believe the sales growth from sun-protective clothing series could be explosive (FY25E target is at around RMB1.bn, implying 100%+ sales growth; the YTD sales growth is already at 80%+), as: 1) the company will launch a new City Outdoor Series/ 都市轻户外系列 on top of the already hot-selling Scorching Sun series/ 骄阳系列, 2) products will be placed into more stores (to around 1,500+ direct retail stores, from 1,000+ stores last year and will also sell to the distributor stores), 3) more A&P expenses will be spent around these product series. Moreover, sales of the sun-protective clothing will also help acquire more potential customers for down apparel in the up-coming winter. Similarly, we are also confident on the development of Ultralight down apparel (FY25E target is at around RMB4.5bn, implying 30%+ sales growth, from RMB3.0bn+ last year), thanks to expansion of product series and further upgrades in designs and functionality. Moreover, this kind of products can effective extend sales seasons of Bosideng's products from winter to other seasons during the year.
公司仍然對其在2013/25財年的快速增長充滿信心，我們確實認爲這是可行的。管理層仍然對其在3/25財年乃至27E財年的增長充滿信心，我們保守地估計，2013/25財年的銷售增長爲14％，淨利潤增長17％。我們認爲，防曬服裝系列的銷售增長可能是爆炸性的（FY25E 目標約爲10億元人民幣，這意味着銷售額增長100％以上；年初至今的銷售增長已經達到80％以上），因爲：1）該公司將在已經熱銷的烈日系列的基礎上推出新的城市戶外系列/都市輕戶外系列/陽陽系列，2）產品將投放到更多門店（達到約1,500多家）直銷店，從去年的1,000多家門店開始，也將出售給分銷商門店），3）將有更多的A＆P費用用於這些產品系列。此外，防曬服裝的銷售也將有助於在即將到來的冬季吸引更多潛在的羽絨服裝客戶。同樣，我們也對超輕羽絨服裝的開發充滿信心（FY25E 的目標約爲45億元人民幣，這意味着銷售額從去年的30億元人民幣以上增長 30% 以上），這要歸功於產品系列的擴大以及設計和功能的進一步升級。此外，這種產品可以有效地將波司登產品的銷售季節從冬季延長到一年中的其他季節。
Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$5.34. We revise up FY3/24E-26E net profit by 11%-13% to factor in: 1) a beat in sales due to favorable weather, 2) positive reception of many new products and 3) better-than-expected operating leverage. We do think this guidance raise is a key moment for the company, as the success that Bosdieng has achieved in the sun-protective product series shows that it is capable of generating sales in all seasons (other than just fall and winter). So we maintain BUY and raise its TP to HK$5.34, based on 15x FY3/25E P/E (raised and rolled over from 14x FY3/24E P/E). It is trading at 12x FY3/25E P/E, still attractive in our view, vs 18%/ 22% sales/ NP CAGRs and a 5-year average of 16x.
維持買入並將目標價上調至5.34港元。我們將2013/24E-26E財年的淨利潤上調了11％-13％，以考慮以下因素：1）天氣晴朗導致銷售增長，2）許多新產品的積極接受以及3）運營槓桿率好於預期。我們確實認爲此次指導上調對公司來說是一個關鍵時刻，因爲Bosdieng在防曬產品系列中取得的成功表明，它能夠在所有季節（秋季和冬季除外）創造銷售。因此，根據3/25財年市盈率的15倍（從3/24財年市盈率的14倍上漲和展期），我們維持買入並將其目標價上調至5.34港元。它的交易價格爲23財年/25財年的市盈率的12倍，在我們看來仍然具有吸引力，而銷售額/淨複合年增長率爲18％/22％，5年平均水平爲16倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。