BOSIDENG INTERNATIONAL(3998.HK):STRONG FY2024 EXPECTED THANKS TO TAILWINDS
BOSIDENG INTERNATIONAL(3998.HK):STRONG FY2024 EXPECTED THANKS TO TAILWINDS
Bosideng International
波司登國際
Strong FY2024 expected thanks to tailwinds
受利好影響，預計 FY2024 表現強勁
Bosideng expects its FY2024 revenue to grow 30% YoY, far above market expectations. While we reckon Bosideng has done well in providing competitive products, we also believe it has managed to seize the opportunity to boost its sales amid pent-up demand and cold weather in early calendar year 2024. Bosideng is also attempting to further diversify away its reliance on down jackets, as it ramps up its bet on sun-protective clothing and outdoor jackets. Still, we believe it could take some time for Bosideng to prove that the new products could mitigate the seasonality risks, especially when the high base of FY24 is considered.
波司登預計，其 FY2024 收入將同比增長30％，遠高於市場預期。儘管我們認爲波司登在提供有競爭力的產品方面做得很好，但我們也認爲，在需求被壓抑和2024年初天氣寒冷的情況下，波司登設法抓住機會促進銷售。波司登還試圖進一步分散對羽絨服的依賴，因爲它加大了對防曬服裝和戶外夾克的賭注。儘管如此，我們認爲波司登可能需要一些時間才能證明新產品可以減輕季節性風險，尤其是在考慮24財年的高基數的情況下。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
FY24 performance a strong beat. Mgmt. of Bosideng expects FY2024 revenue to grow c.30% YoY, while net profit growth could be even higher when one-off items are accounted for. With this guidance considered, FY24 revenue could be 9% above Bloomberg consensus. In our latest revised estimates, this would mean 2HFY24 revenue/NP at RMB14.4bn/2.12bn, +36%/+51% YoY respectively. This could be the strongest 2HFY24 posted by Bosideng. On a full year basis, we now expect Bosideng's revenue/NP to be RMB21.9bn/3.05bn, up 30%/43% YoY respectively.
24 財年的業績表現強勁。波司登管理層預計，FY2024 收入將同比增長約30％，而如果將一次性項目考慮在內，淨利潤增長可能會更高。考慮到這一指導方針，24財年的收入可能比彭博社的共識高出9％。在我們最新的修訂估計中，這意味着 2HFY24 收入/淨利潤爲人民幣144億元/21.2億元，同比分別增長36％/+51％。這可能是波司登發佈的最強的 2HFY24。按全年計算，我們現在預計波司登的收入/淨利潤爲219億元人民幣/30.5億元人民幣，分別同比增長30％/43％。
Weather and pent-up demand boosted sales in FY24. Per mgmt., Bosideng's top 17% winter down jacket products accounted for 70% sales in the fiscal year. We believe this reflects extraordinary sales of winter products in 2HFY24 due to favourable seasonality. While we estimate that Bosideng recorded strong sales during its usual peak season (Nov - Jan), the unusual cold weather in Feb 2024 or weeks after Chinese New Year also brought additional sales. On the other hand, we also believe a base effect was in play, as sales of 2HFY23 (Oct 22 - Mar 23) were negatively impacted by lockdowns and nationwide infections of COVID-19.
天氣和被壓抑的需求推動了24財年的銷售。根據管理層的統計，波司登排名前17％的冬季羽絨服產品佔該財年銷售額的70％。我們認爲，這反映了由於有利的季節性，2HFY24 冬季產品的銷售異常出色。雖然我們估計波司登在通常的旺季（11月至1月）銷售強勁，但2024年2月或農曆新年後幾周不尋常的寒冷天氣也帶來了額外的銷售。另一方面，我們也認爲基本效應正在發揮作用，因爲 2HFY23 的銷售（10 月 22 日至 3 月 23 日）受到封鎖和 COVID-19 全國感染的負面影響。
Ambitious target for FY25-27 despite a high base of FY24. Mgmt. reiterated its target for FY25-27: revenue CAGR not lower than that during FY20- 24. This would imply revenue CAGR FY25-27 to be 15.7% under our latest forecast. This could be ambitious, in our view, as FY24 has already achieved a 30% top-line growth.
儘管 24 財年的基數很高，但 FY25-27 的目標還是雄心勃勃。管理層重申了其 FY25-27 目標：收入複合年增長率不低於2020-24財年的複合年增長率。這意味着收入複合年增長率將比我們最新的預測低15.7％。FY25-27我們認爲，這可能是雄心勃勃的，因爲24財年的收入已經實現了30％的增長。
Lowering seasonality risks could take time. Since FY24, Bosideng started to ramp up products other than down jackets. These include sun-protective clothing and outdoor jackets. However, even though sun-protective item achieved strong growth (>300% per mgmt.), we estimate the contribution from this product is only <3% in FY24, and likely mid-S.D. in FY25. This means Bosideng is still relying on down apparels and subject to seasonality risk in FY25 and beyond.
降低季節性風險可能需要時間。自24財年以來，波司登開始增加羽絨服以外的產品。其中包括防曬衣和戶外夾克。但是，儘管防曬產品實現了強勁的增長（每次管理增長超過300％），但我們估計該產品的貢獻在24財年僅爲
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。