XTEP INTERNATIONAL(1368.HK):RECENT INCIDENT UNLIKELY TO DRAG ITS POST-1Q24 MOMENTUM
XTEP INTERNATIONAL(1368.HK):RECENT INCIDENT UNLIKELY TO DRAG ITS POST-1Q24 MOMENTUM
Xtep International
特步國際
Recent incident unlikely to drag its post-1Q24 momentum
最近的事件不太可能拖累其在24年第一季度之後的勢頭
Xtep's core brand reported a high single-digit growth for its 1Q24 retail sell-through, and sales have turned better in late March and April so far. While we believe the numbers are in-line with expectations, its operations have shown some encouraging signs. We believe Xtep would continue to demonstrate resilience with its appealing running shoe products. Hence, at this moment, we expect Xtep's risk of not meeting its 2024 guidance may not be that significant. We do not expect the recent controversy related to Beijing Half Marathon could impact the sales of Xtep, the sponsor of the race. The overreaction to this incident may provide a buying opportunity, in our view.
Xtep的核心品牌報告稱，其24年第一季度零售銷售額實現了高個位數的增長，到目前爲止，3月下旬和4月的銷售額有所好轉。儘管我們認爲這些數字符合預期，但其業務已顯示出一些令人鼓舞的跡象。我們相信，Xtep將繼續憑藉其吸引人的跑鞋產品表現出韌性。因此，目前，我們預計Xtep未達到其2024年指引的風險可能並不那麼大。我們預計最近與北京半程馬拉松有關的爭議不會影響該賽事贊助商特步的銷售。我們認爲，對這起事件的過度反應可能提供買入機會。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1Q24 performance in-line with expectations. Xtep's core brand recorded a high S.D. YoY growth for its retail sell-through, while other new brands such as Saucony and Palladium combined achieved >50% YoY growth in mainland China. For the core Xtep brand, its operating metrics have also improved versus previous quarters, as retail discount narrowed slightly to 25-30% in 1Q24. Channel-wise, online performed better (>25% YoY) due to base effect. These numbers are slightly better than some peers but largely in-line with expectations.
24 年第一季度的業績符合預期。特步的核心品牌的零售銷售額同比增長率較高，而索康尼和Palladium等其他新品牌在中國大陸合計實現了超過50％的同比增長。對於核心Xtep品牌而言，其運營指標也與前幾個季度相比有所改善，零售折扣在24年第一季度略有縮小至25-30％。在渠道方面，由於基礎效應，在線表現更好（同比超過25％）。這些數字略好於某些同行，但基本符合預期。
Confident to meet its 2024 revenue target. Xtep's retail sales have seen improvement in late March 2024, and the growth further accelerated to c.10% in early April. Mgmt. attributed this to popular launch of 360X, running shoes series that features carbon plate. In addition, mgmt. expected sales growth in May 2024 could further accelerate to >20%, due to a low base in 2023. Hence, they are confident in maintaining the guidance given in March 2024, i.e. achieving >10% revenue growth in 2024.
有信心實現其2024年的收入目標。特步的零售銷售在2024年3月下旬有所改善，4月初增長進一步加速至約10％。Mgmt. 將其歸因於以碳板爲特色的360X跑鞋系列的廣受歡迎推出。此外，由於2023年基數較低，管理層預計在2024年5月的銷售增長可能會進一步加速至20％以上。因此，他們有信心維持2024年3月給出的指導方針，即在2024年實現超過10％的收入增長。
Incident of 14 April Beijing Half Marathon unlikely impactful. Mgmt. refused to comment on the controversy related to the race, where Xtep acts as the sponsor. However, we believe the incident is unlikely to affect the sales momentum, as: (1) it is common for professional runners to hire pacers, but this is not commonly known by the public, and (2) the key customers of Xtep are casual runners in low-tier cities who cares about value-for-money.
4月14日北京半程馬拉松事件不太可能產生影響。Mgmt. 拒絕評論與競賽有關的爭議，Xtep是該競賽的贊助商。但是，我們認爲該事件不太可能影響銷售勢頭，因爲：（1）職業跑步者僱用步行者很常見，但這並不爲公衆所熟知，而且（2）Xtep的主要客戶是低線城市的休閒跑步者，他們關心物有所值。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: (1) unsuccessful multi-brand strategy; (2) deteriorated retail sell-through for core brand; (3) unexpected spike in spending, and (4) write-off of intangible assets due to acquisitions failing to meet expectations.
下行風險：（1）多品牌戰略失敗；（2）核心品牌的零售銷售額惡化；（3）支出意外激增，（4）由於收購未能達到預期而註銷無形資產。
Valuation
估價
Our TP of HK$5.90 is based on 12x 2024E P/E.
我們的目標價爲5.90港元，以12倍的2024年市盈率爲基礎。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。